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Current Win Probability
Tobol Kostanay 53.6%
Draw 25.1%
Ulytau 21.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
44.5%
28%
27.6%
Our Initial ML Estimation
41.2%
25.9%
29.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Tobol Kostanay has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.1%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tobol Kostanay's performance.
Ulytau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ulytau might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tobol Kostanay than the current prediction. (-12.4%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tobol Kostanay that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ulytau than the current prediction. (+8.5%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ulytau could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Tobol Kostanay - Ulytau Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Busurmanov S. (G) 21. Zhagorov N. 4. Cavnic N. 5. Ndiaye P. 3. Asrankulov R. 8. Tagybergen A. (C) 6. Myakish M. 99. Lisakovich V. 14. Talal A. 17. Zuev A. 18. Milovanovic U.
1. Nepogodov D. (G) 2. Carmona Sierra D. 28. Bugulov G. (C) 69. Maulenov D. 12. Afanasenko V. 13. Akhmedov A. 18. Bougnone A. 8. Vachiberadze B. 14. Harada H. 7. Kishi K. 22. Chernyak I.
Substitutes
34. Bakhytkiriev S. 25. Borsic A. 30. Guerra L. 22. Marochkin A. 35. Melikhov Y. (G) 51. Mukhin D. (G) 56. Musaev E. 7. Zhumashev Z. 19. Zhumat D. 57. Zinadin A.
88. Abdilda I. 17. Daniyarov B. 16. Mukhanbetuly A. 21. Nurali O. 6. Nursultanov K. 9. Serikkul R. 77. Shauymbay M. 40. Shcherbakov S. (G) 10. Taubay A. 78. Zakirov T. (G)
Coaches
Romashchenko M.
Mazbaev N.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
16', 1 - 0, Milovanovic U. ⚽, Talal A. (A),
20', Lisakovich V. 🟨,
37', 1 - 1, Akhmedov A. ⚽, Chernyak I. (A),
39', Carmona Sierra D. 🟨,
45+1', Tagybergen A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
55', Zuev A. 🟨,
57', Bougnone A. ↓, Serikkul R. ↑,
60', 2 - 1, Lisakovich V. ⚽, Zuev A. (A),
62', Asrankulov R. ↓, Borsic A. ↑,
62', Zuev A. ↓, Guerra L. ↑,
63', Talal A. 🟨,
70', Harada H. ↓, Taubay A. ↑,
70', Akhmedov A. ↓, Nurali O. ↑,
72', Nurali O. 🟨,
76', Talal A. ↓, Zhumashev Z. ↑,
90+2', 3 - 1, Milovanovic U. ⚽, Zhumashev Z. (A),
90+2', Kishi K. ↓, Daniyarov B. ↑,
Preview
Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 9 and 7).
In recent matches, Tobol has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Ulytau's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
Tobol may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, Tobol is the team to beat.
In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Tobol won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 1.7:1.3).
Including home match between the teams, Tobol won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.
Watch
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Busurmanov S. (G) 
Cavnic N. 
Ndiaye P. 
Myakish M. 
Talal A. 
Milovanovic U. 
Carmona Sierra D. 
Bugulov G. (C) 
Bougnone A. 
Vachiberadze B. 
Harada H. 
Borsic A. 
Guerra L. 
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