Match Info

J1 League - Round 12

Date: 24 April 2026, Friday

Location: Ajinomoto Stadium (Tokyo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT
China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan
World	Onefootball


	Tokyo		Mito HollyHock

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.5	6	Watch
	1.6	3.55	5.7
	1.66	3.7	6.42
	1.65	3.65	5.79	Watch
	1.62	3.3	6
	1.62	3.56	6.43	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.72)	3.54 ↓ (3.68)	6.06 ↑ (4.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tokyo
58%

Draw
26.5%

Mito HollyHock
15.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55%

25.7%

19.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.3%

28.2%

17.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tokyo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Mito HollyHock has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tokyo than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mito HollyHock than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	6.2%	6.2%

Tokyo - Mito HollyHock Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tokyo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.75 - Mito HollyHock (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Tokyo will win (14 of 16 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.29% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tokyo (votes: 1 - 50%). Mito HollyHock (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
81. Kim Seung-Gyu (G) 2. Muroya S. (C) 24. Scholz A. 17. Inamura H. 42. Hashimoto K. 16. Sato K. 18. Hashimoto K. 27. Tokiwa K. 22. Endo K. 9. Marcelo Ryan 23. Sato R.	34. Nishikawa K. (G) 25. Mase T. 2. Danilo Cardoso 17. Itakura K. 6. Iida T. 70. Matheus Leiria 19. Semba T. 3. Osaki K. 14. Arai M. 29. Tada K. 10. Watanabe A. (C)
Substitutes
10. Higashi K. 8. Ko T. 3. Morishige M. 39. Nakagawa T. 28. Nozawa L. 15. Omori R. 55. Otani D. C. 1. Tanaka H. (G) 71. Yamada F.	33. Ando K. 21. Matsubara S. (G) 9. Nemoto R. 44. Okuda K. 7. Omori S. 4. Ushizawa T. 39. Yamamoto H. 48. Yamashita Y. 24. Yamazaki K.
Coaches
Matsuhashi R.	Kimori D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Danilo Cardoso ⚽, Arai M. (A),
35', 1 - 1, Marcelo Ryan ⚽, Scholz A. (A),
40', Mase T. 🟨,
43', 2 - 1, Sato K. ⚽,
45+3', Danilo Cardoso 🟨,
45+5', 3 - 1, Marcelo Ryan (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Endo K. ↓, Nakagawa T. ↑,
46', Arai M. ↓, Yamamoto H. ↑,
55', Watanabe A. ↓, Nemoto R. ↑,
56', Mase T. ↓, Omori S. ↑,
68', 4 - 1, Muroya S. ⚽,
69', Matheus Leiria ↓, Ando K. ↑,
70', 4 - 2, Ando K. ⚽,
70', Scholz A. ↓, Omori R. ↑,
74', 5 - 2, Sato R. ⚽, Marcelo Ryan (A),
76', Semba T. ↓, Yamashita Y. ↑,
83', Sato K. ↓, Yamada F. ↑,
83', Marcelo Ryan ↓, Nozawa L. ↑,
88', Inamura H. ↓, Morishige M. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place)).

In recent matches, Tokyo has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Mito HollyHock is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Tokyo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Tokyo has had a series of away games.

In this match, Tokyo is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Tokyo: Arai Y. (Knee Injury) Nagakura M. (Hamstring Injury) Nagatomo Y. (Hamstring Injury) Tawaratsumida K. (Inactive)

There will not play in Mito HollyHock: Fofana M. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Tokyo: Sato K. (Injury)

There are questionable in Mito HollyHock: Kato C. (Hamstring Injury) Torikai Y. (Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Tokyo won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:3. (average 1.7:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Tokyo won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

FC Tokyo: 11.22% Mito: 0.78%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	FC Tokyo	4	2	1	1	8:7	1	7
11	Mito	4	1	2	1	6:5	1	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Tokyo
Japan J1 League
11.04.26	Yokohama F. Marinos - Tokyo	1:3 ✺
05.04.26	Tokyo - Machida Zelvia	0:1 penalties ✺
01.04.26	Machida Zelvia - Tokyo	0:3 ✺
22.03.26	Tokyo Verdy - Tokyo	1:0 penalties ✺
18.03.26	JEF United Chiba - Tokyo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WLWLW
- Mito HollyHock
Japan J1 League
19.04.26	Mito HollyHock - Kashiwa Reysol	2:0 ✺
11.04.26	JEF United Chiba - Mito HollyHock	1:2 penalties ✺
04.04.26	Mito HollyHock - Kashima Antlers	2:1 penalties ✺
22.03.26	Kashiwa Reysol - Mito HollyHock	3:0 ✺
18.03.26	Mito HollyHock - Yokohama F. Marinos	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.5 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
14.03.26	Mito HollyHock - Tokyo	1:2 penalties
Club Friendly
11.10.24	Tokyo - Mito HollyHock	1:2
Japan Emperors Cup
11.11.15	Tokyo - Mito HollyHock	2:0

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