Match Info

J1 League - Round 16

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Best Denki Stadium (Mito)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan, NHK BS1


	Mito HollyHock		Urawa Red Diamonds

	1	X	2
	4	3.3	1.91	Watch
	3.4	3.25	2.1
	3.85	3.25	1.95	Watch
	4.26	3.37	2
	4.11	3.3	1.97	Watch
	3.9	3.1	1.95
	3.99	3.26	1.96	Watch
	3.05	3.2	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.82 ↑ (3)	3.25 (3.25)	2.02 ↓ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Mito HollyHock
24.6%

Draw
28.8%

Urawa Red Diamonds
46.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31%

28.6%

40.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32%

27.7%

39.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mito HollyHock has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mito HollyHock's form might have worsened.

Urawa Red Diamonds has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Urawa Red Diamonds's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mito HollyHock than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mito HollyHock, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Urawa Red Diamonds than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Urawa Red Diamonds, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	30%	30%

Mito HollyHock - Urawa Red Diamonds Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Mito HollyHock will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Urawa will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mito HollyHock: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
34. Nishikawa K. (G) 89. Sasaki K. 17. Itakura K. 7. Omori S. (C) 39. Yamamoto H. 24. Yamazaki K. 82. Kawakami K. 48. Yamashita Y. 11. Torikai Y. 44. Okuda K. 29. Tada K.	1. Nishikawa S. (G) 3. Danilo Boza 2. Miyamoto Y. 5. Nemoto K. 88. Naganuma Y. 11. Gustafson S. 25. Yasui K. 39. Hayakawa J. 13. Watanabe R. (C) 8. Matheus Savio 17. Komori H.
Substitutes
13. Aihara S. 33. Ando K. 8. Kato C. 70. Matheus Leiria 21. Matsubara S. (G) 9. Nemoto R. 3. Osaki K. 20. Patryck 53. Yamashita S.	36. Hidano R. 4. Ishihara H. 77. Kaneko T. 9. Kiese I. 24. Matsuo Y. 10. Nakajima S. 16. Niekawa A. (G) 14. Sekine T. 22. Shibato K.
Coaches
Kimori D.	Tanaka T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
24', 0 - 1, Yasui K. ⚽,
26', Omori S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
46', Okuda K. ↓, Matheus Leiria ↑,
51', Sasaki K. 🟥,
52', Yamazaki K. ↓, Osaki K. ↑,
53', Matheus Savio ↓, Nakajima S. ↑,
53', Gustafson S. ↓, Kaneko T. ↑,
70', 0 - 2, Komori H. ⚽, Naganuma Y. (A),
76', Komori H. ↓, Kiese I. ↑,
77', Tada K. ↓, Patryck ↑,
77', Torikai Y. ↓, Ando K. ↑,
77', 0 - 3, Kiese I. ⚽, Hayakawa J. (A),
79', 0 - 4, Kiese I. ⚽, Hayakawa J. (A),
81', Patryck 🟨,
82', Danilo Boza ↓, Ishihara H. ↑,
82', Hayakawa J. ↓, Matsuo Y. ↑,
84', 1 - 4, Yamamoto H. ⚽,
90', Kawakami K. ↓, Nemoto R. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 13th place) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place)).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Urawa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Urawa might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Mito HollyHock: Ushizawa T. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Mito HollyHock: Fofana M. (Hamstring Injury) Hayakawa U. (Knee Injury) Kamiyama M. (Finger Injury) Kato C. (Hamstring Injury) Shimatani K. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Mito HollyHock won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.5:2).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Urawa Reds: 1.92% Mito: 0.78%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Mito	4	1	2	1	6:5	1	5
17	Urawa Reds	4	1	0	3	8:13	-5	3

Last Results with these Odds

Mito HollyHock - the odds 3 are the expected chance of winning is 30.98%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Urawa Red Diamonds - the odds 2.3 are the expected chance of winning is 40.41%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mito HollyHock
Japan J1 League
06.05.26	Kashima Antlers - Mito HollyHock	3:0 ✺
02.05.26	Yokohama F. Marinos - Mito HollyHock	1:2 penalties ✺
29.04.26	Mito HollyHock - Machida Zelvia	2:3 penalties ✺
24.04.26	Tokyo - Mito HollyHock	5:2 ✺
19.04.26	Mito HollyHock - Kashiwa Reysol	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 LWLLW
- Urawa Red Diamonds
Japan J1 League
06.05.26	Kashiwa Reysol - Urawa Red Diamonds	0:1 ✺
02.05.26	Urawa Red Diamonds - JEF United Chiba	2:0 ✺
29.04.26	Urawa Red Diamonds - Kawasaki Frontale	2:0 ✺
25.04.26	Urawa Red Diamonds - Yokohama F. Marinos	2:3 ✺
18.04.26	Kashima Antlers - Urawa Red Diamonds	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
07.03.26	Urawa Red Diamonds - Mito HollyHock	2:0
Japan Emperors Cup
14.08.19	Urawa Red Diamonds - Mito HollyHock	2:1

Upcoming Matches