Match Info

Leagues Cup - Round 2

Date: 1 August 2025, Friday

Location: Red Bull Arena (Harrison, NJ)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	MLS Season Pass
World	Apple TV


	Toluca		CF Montréal

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.5	5.25	Watch
	1.58	3.9	4.4
	1.5	4.5	5.3	Watch
	1.5	4.76	5.97
	1.50	4.69	5.41	Watch
	1.51	4.54	5.3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↓ (2.01)	4.48 ↑ (3.61)	5.27 ↑ (3.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toluca
61.5%

Draw
20.8%

CF Montréal
17.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.6%

25.9%

27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.3%

25%

26.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Toluca's performance.

CF Montréal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and CF Montréal might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-13.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Toluca that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for CF Montréal than the current prediction. (+8.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that CF Montréal could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.9%	7.1%	0%

Toluca - CF Montréal Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Toluca (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Toluca will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.37% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Toluca will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Toluca (votes: 6 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Garcia L. (G) 2. Barbosa D. 13. Luan 6. Pereira F. 20. Gallardo J. 26. Paulinho 14. Ruiz M. 5. Romero F. 11. Castro H. 9. Vega A. (C) 10. Angulo J.	40. Sirois J. (G) 27. Bugaj D. 4. Alvarez F. 24. Morales E. 39. Guboglo Y. 6. Piette S. 16. Waterman J. 22. Loturi V. 18. Synchuk G. 9. Owusu P. 23. Clark C.
Substitutes
35. Alvarez A. 24. Arce F. 12. Beltran R. (G) 3. Briseno A. 4. Bruno Mendez 8. Castro N. 25. del Villar E. 7. Dominguez Chonteco J. P. 1. Gonzalez H. (G) 16. Herrera H. 31. Morales R. 23. Virgen O.	1. Breza S. (G) 5. Craig B. 10. Duke B. 29. Escobar O. 31. Gillier T. (G) 35. Graham-Roache O. 14. Ibrahim S. 7. Opoku K. 3. Pearce T. 13. Petrasso L. 25. Sealy D. 28. Vilsaint J.
Coaches
Mohamed A.	Donadel M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
20', 0 - 1, Morales E. ⚽, Synchuk G. (A),
23', 1 - 1, Angulo J. ⚽, Castro H. (A),
26', 2 - 1, Paulinho ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
55', Waterman J. 🟨,
56', Guboglo Y. ↓, Petrasso L. ↑,
57', Loturi V. ↓, Sealy D. ↑,
71', Castro H. ↓, Castro N. ↑,
72', Angulo J. ↓, Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ↑,
77', Waterman J. ↓, Craig B. ↑,
77', Synchuk G. ↓, Escobar O. ↑,
83', Vega A. ↓, Morales R. ↑,
84', Paulinho ↓, Bruno Mendez ↑,
84', Bugaj D. ↓, Graham-Roache O. ↑,
90+6', Graham-Roache O. 🟨,

Preview

Toluca is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Montreal's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Toluca is the team to beat.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Toluca
CONCACAF League Cup
29.07.25	Toluca - Columbus Crew	2:2 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
26.07.25	Toluca - Tigres UANL	3:4 ✺
Mexican Campeon de Campeones
20.07.25	Club América - Toluca	1:3 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
16.07.25	Santos Laguna - Toluca	2:4 ✺
12.07.25	Toluca - Necaxa	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 TLWWW
- CF Montréal
CONCACAF League Cup
29.07.25	CF Montréal - Club León	1:1 ✺
MLS
25.07.25	New England Revolution - CF Montréal	1:3 ✺
19.07.25	CF Montréal - Chicago Fire	0:2 ✺
16.07.25	Philadelphia Union - CF Montréal	2:1 ✺
12.07.25	Orlando City - CF Montréal	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 TWLLT

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