Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 3

Date: 2 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Nemesio Díez (Toluca)

Referee: Valle J. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Canal 5, TUDN, ViX Premium
Usa	SportsEngine Play, TUDN


	Toluca		Necaxa

	1	X	2
	1.45	4.75	6	Watch
	1.47	4.50	6.00
	1.43	4.7	6.4	Watch
	1.52	4.75	6.12
	1.5	4.66	5.91	Watch
	1.49	4.65	6
	1.48	4.8	6.38	Watch
	1.48	4.6	5.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↑ (1.39)	4.68 ↓ (4.78)	6.05 ↓ (6.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toluca
64.1%

Draw
20.3%

Necaxa
15.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67%

19.5%

13.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Necaxa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	14.3%	42.9%

Toluca - Necaxa Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Toluca will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Necaxa will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Garcia L. (G) 19. Simon S. 6. Pereira F. 25. del Villar E. 20. Gallardo J. 29. Diaz Price J. 5. Romero F. 10. Angulo J. 35. Gutierrez E. 9. Vega A. (C) 21. Lopez I.	12. Jimenez L. (G) 99. Rodriguez E. 33. Martinez R. 4. Pena A. (C) 3. Oliveros A. 88. Vargas C. 8. Faravelli L. 6. Leyva D. 10. Ruiz J. 11. Torres Patino J. P. 9. Carranza J.
Substitutes
24. Arce F. 3. Briseno A. 4. Bruno Mendez 17. Garcia Caprizo B. A. 1. Gonzalez H. (G) 7. Guzman V. 11. Helinho 13. Luan 15. Perez P. 16. Vinas F.	1. Andrade C. (G) 17. Cortez R. 21. Espindola M. 20. Mendez F. 30. Monreal R. 5. Naves 16. Pedraza P. 27. Pedroza M. 90. Valencia J. 14. Zaleta M.
Coaches
Mohamed A.	Varini M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
29', 1 - 0, Lopez I. ⚽, Gallardo J. (A),
42', 1 - 1, Carranza J. ⚽, Pena A. (A),
45+4', Martinez R. 🟨,
45+5', 2 - 1, del Villar E. ⚽, Lopez I. (A),
45+7', Carranza J. 🟥,
45+7', Oliveros A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Torres Patino J. P. ↓, Pedraza P. ↑,
46', Vargas C. ↓, Zaleta M. ↑,
46', Ruiz J. ↓, Valencia J. ↑,
57', 3 - 1, Jimenez L. (Own goal),
59', Diaz Price J. ↓, Guzman V. ↑,
59', Lopez I. ↓, Vinas F. ↑,
65', Gutierrez E. ↓, Helinho ↑,
65', Angulo J. ↓, Perez P. ↑,
67', Faravelli L. ↓, Espindola M. ↑,
80', Oliveros A. 🟨,
85', Leyva D. ↓, Mendez F. ↑,
90', Vega A. ↓, Briseno A. ↑,
90+7', Romero F. 🟨,
90+7', Valencia J. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 4.

Toluca may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Toluca is the team to beat.

There will not play in Toluca: Ruiz M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Necaxa: Rosero K. (Injury)

There are questionable in Toluca: Virgen O. (Leg Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 10 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 37:20. (average 1.9:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Toluca won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 20:9. (average 2:0.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Toluca	11	6	2	3	25:15	10	20
17	Necaxa	10	2	2	6	12:20	-8	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Toluca
Mexican Campeon de Campeones
25.07.26	Toluca - Cruz Azul	1:3 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
21.07.26	Toluca - UNAM	1:2 ✺
18.07.26	Chivas Guadalajara - Toluca	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
03.07.26	Cancún - Toluca	1:0 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
30.05.26	Toluca - Tigres UANL	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LLWLW
- Club Necaxa
Mexican Liga MX
26.07.26	Necaxa - Monterrey	2:1 ✺
16.07.26	Necaxa - Atlante	2:1 ✺
26.04.26	Cruz Azul - Necaxa	4:1 ✺
22.04.26	Necaxa - Chivas Guadalajara	0:0 ✺
18.04.26	Necaxa - Tigres UANL	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 WWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
21.02.26	Necaxa - Toluca	0:3
12.07.25	Toluca - Necaxa	3:1
08.03.25	Toluca - Necaxa	5:2
27.10.24	Necaxa - Toluca	1:3
10.02.24	Necaxa - Toluca	3:3
02.07.23	Toluca - Necaxa	0:0
30.04.23	Toluca - Necaxa	3:0

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