Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 2

Date: 16 July 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Corona (Torreón)

Referee: Perez S. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	VIX+, ViX Premium
South-america	ViX Latin America
Usa	TUDN App, TUDN, UniMas, Univision


	Santos Laguna		Toluca

	1	X	2
	6	4.33	1.5	Watch
	4.6	4	1.65
	5.9	4.25	1.5	Watch
	6.02	4.48	1.54
				Watch
	4.6	3.8	1.65
	5.65	4.35	1.53	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.46 ↑ (4.34)	4.2 ↑ (3.98)	1.56 ↓ (1.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santos Laguna
17.2%

Draw
22.4%

Toluca
60.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.4%

23.4%

55.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santos Laguna has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Toluca's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	0%	83.3%

Santos Laguna - Toluca Predictions

Users Predictions: Toluca will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Toluca will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Acevedo C. (G) 4. Abella J. (C) 17. Echeverria E. 2. Amione B. 35. Balanta K. 19. Ortega H. 6. Guemez J. 21. Villalba F. 26. Sordo R. 13. Ocejo Zazueta J. A. 5. Lopez A.	1. Gonzalez H. (C) 25. del Villar E. 4. Bruno Mendez 6. Pereira F. 184. Aceves S. 16. Herrera H. 17. Isais M. 8. Castro N. 11. Helinho 31. Morales R. 33. Arteaga V.
Substitutes
9. Carrillo J. 7. Dajome C. 10. Fagundez F. 3. Govea I. 23. Gutierrez E. 33. Holguin H. (G) 11. Lozano C. 24. Medina D. 20. Palacios K. 22. Prieto R.	10. Angulo J. 2. Barbosa D. 7. Dominguez Chonteco J. P. 20. Gallardo J. 22. Garcia L. (G) 13. Luan 5. Romero F. 14. Ruiz M. 9. Vega A. 23. Virgen O.
Coaches
Rodriguez F.	Mohamed A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
14', 1 - 0, Sordo R. ⚽,
20', Pereira F. 🟨,
27', 2 - 0, Ocejo Zazueta J. A. ⚽,
30', Aceves S. 🟨,
35', Ocejo Zazueta J. A. 🟨,
38', Arteaga V. 🟨,
43', 2 - 1, Helinho ⚽, Castro N. (A),
45+3', Ocejo Zazueta J. A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Arteaga V. ↓, Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ↑,
46', Pereira F. ↓, Virgen O. ↑,
46', Aceves S. ↓, Barbosa D. ↑,
46', Villalba F. ↓, Gutierrez E. ↑,
46', Balanta K. ↓, Lozano C. ↑,
49', 2 - 2, Helinho ⚽, Virgen O. (A),
54', Abella J. 🟨,
58', Sordo R. ↓, Dajome C. ↑,
62', Echeverria E. 🟨,
63', 2 - 3, Morales R. ⚽, Helinho (A),
68', Echeverria E. ↓, Carrillo J. ↑,
69', Abella J. ↓, Medina D. ↑,
77', Helinho ↓, Vega A. ↑,
88', Gonzalez H. ↓, Garcia L. ↑,
88', Garcia L. 🟨,
90+6', 2 - 4, Morales R. ⚽, Dominguez Chonteco J. P. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santos Laguna won 2.

In this match, Toluca is considered a favorite.

There are questionable in Santos Laguna: Aquino P. (Injury) Barticciotto B. (Foot Injury) Medina D. (Injury) Sordo R. (Injury)

There are questionable in Toluca: Lopez P. (Finger Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Santos Laguna won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 31:35. (average 1.6:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Santos Laguna won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 19:13. (average 2.1:1.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Santos Laguna - the odds 4.34 are the expected chance of winning is 21.42%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santos Laguna
Mexican Liga MX
12.07.25	Santos Laguna - UNAM	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
27.06.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Santos Laguna	2:2 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
20.04.25	Santos Laguna - Tijuana	0:4 ✺
16.04.25	UNAM - Santos Laguna	2:0 ✺
13.04.25	Santos Laguna - Querétaro	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WTLLL
- Deportivo Toluca
Mexican Liga MX
12.07.25	Toluca - Necaxa	3:1 ✺
25.05.25	Toluca - Club América	2:0 ✺
22.05.25	Club América - Toluca	0:0 ✺
17.05.25	Toluca - Tigres UANL	3:0 ✺
14.05.25	Tigres UANL - Toluca	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
06.04.25	Toluca - Santos Laguna	2:1
22.09.24	Santos Laguna - Toluca	2:0
21.02.24	Toluca - Santos Laguna	1:0
05.11.23	Santos Laguna - Toluca	3:1
23.02.23	Santos Laguna - Toluca	0:5
16.10.22	Santos Laguna - Toluca	1:2
13.10.22	Toluca - Santos Laguna	4:3

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