Match Info

BRAZIL: Mineiro - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 22 February 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Antonio Guimaraes de Almeida (Tombos)

Referee: Misson M. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Tombense		Atlético Mineiro

	1	X	2
				Watch
	4.8	3.35	1.66	Watch
	5.52	3.54	1.66
	5.53	3.47	1.68	Watch
	5	3.4	1.65
	5.39	3.62	1.61	Watch
	4.8	3.35	1.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.17 ↓ (5.6)	3.46 ↑ (3.3)	1.65 ↓ (1.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tombense
17.8%

Draw
26.6%

Atlético Mineiro
55.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.5%

28%

55.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.3%

27.6%

56.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tombense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Atlético Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tombense than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Tombense - Atlético Mineiro Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Matheus Aurelio (G) 2. Julio Henrique 4. Roger Carvalho 3. Joao Mandovani 6. Dudu Mandai 8. Fabricio 5. Joao Vitor 10. Pedro Oliveira 7. Jefferson Renan 11. Anderson Ligeiro 9. Joao Pedro	22. Everson (G) 2. Natanael 4. Lyanco 6. Alonso J. 13. Guilherme Arana 25. Gabriel Menino 21. Franco A. 10. Gustavo Scarpa 33. Rony 28. Cuello 7. Hulk
Substitutes
22. Alisson 14. Breno Roma 20. Cleiton 15. Diego Guerra 13. Dorival 21. Jupi 17. Lucas Mila 18. Lucas Santos 19. Luiz Felipe 16. Tarcisio 12. Vinicius Dias (G)	19. Alisson 11. Bernard 38. Caio Paulista 9. Deyverson 1. Gabriel Delfim (G) 17. Igor Gomes 16. Igor Rabello 20. Patrick Silva 26. Renzo Saravia 31. Robert (G) 47. Romulus 44. Rubens
Coaches
Raul Cabral	Dea G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
9', Julio Henrique 🟨,
19', 0 - 1, Rony ⚽, Cuello (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Julio Henrique ↓, Dorival ↑,
46', Jefferson Renan ↓, Lucas Mila ↑,
50', Hulk ↓, Alisson ↑,
54', 0 - 2, Roger Carvalho (Own goal),
62', Lucas Mila 🟨,
70', Alonso J. 🟨,
72', Anderson Ligeiro (Pen),
73', Cuello ↓, Deyverson ↑,
73', Rony ↓, Bernard ↑,
78', Gabriel Menino ↓, Rubens ↑,
78', Gustavo Scarpa ↓, Igor Gomes ↑,
79', Anderson Ligeiro ↓, Cleiton ↑,
87', Alisson 🟨,
88', Roger Carvalho 🟨,
88', Deyverson 🟨,
90+1', Joao Vitor ↓, Tarcisio ↑,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 0-2.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Tombense won 0.

Recent matches Tombense is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Atlético MG in the latest match got series victories and it is in excellent form (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Atlético MG could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Atlético MG is a favorite.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Tombense won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 11 matches and goals 8:29 (average 0.5:1.9).

Including matches at home between the teams Tombense won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 3:14 (average 0.4:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tombense FC
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
15.02.25	Atlético Mineiro - Tombense	2:0 ✺
12.02.25	Villa Nova AC - Tombense	0:2 ✺
08.02.25	Tombense - América Mineiro	1:0 ✺
05.02.25	Tombense - Aymorés	1:0 ✺
01.02.25	Athletic Club - Tombense	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LWWWL
- Atlético Mineiro
Copa do Brasil
18.02.25	Tocantinópolis - Atlético Mineiro	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
15.02.25	Atlético Mineiro - Tombense	2:0 ✺
12.02.25	Atlético Mineiro - Itabirito	3:0 ✺
09.02.25	Cruzeiro - Atlético Mineiro	0:2 ✺
04.02.25	Atlético Mineiro - Athletic Club	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
15.02.25	Atlético Mineiro - Tombense	2:0
14.02.24	Atlético Mineiro - Tombense	1:1
29.01.23	Tombense - Atlético Mineiro	1:2
29.01.22	Atlético Mineiro - Tombense	3:0
08.05.21	Atlético Mineiro - Tombense	1:1
01.05.21	Tombense - Atlético Mineiro	0:3
04.03.21	Tombense - Atlético Mineiro	1:2

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