Match Info

Copa Sul-Sudeste - Round 1

Date: 25 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Antonio Guimaraes de Almeida (Tombos)


	Tombense		Avaí

	1	X	2
	1.20	6.40	10.63	Watch
	1.5	3.6	5.5
	1.55	3.58	5.59
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↓ (1.55)	4.53 ↑ (3.58)	7.24 ↑ (5.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tombense
66.3%

Draw
20.7%

Avaí
13%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.6%

25.4%

16.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.7%

25.9%

15.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tombense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tombense's performance.

Avaí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tombense than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tombense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Tombense - Avaí Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Matheus Aurelio (G) 8. Dyego 10. Felipinho 7. Joao Vitor 2. Julio Henrique 9. Luiz Felipe 6. PH 4. Roger Carvalho (C) 3. Rony Fernandes 11. Sousa Rocha Leandro J. 5. Wanderson	21. Joaquim (G) 6. Alemao 7. Jamerson (C) 3. Joao Vittor 2. Kaua Fernandes 10. Kevin 4. Reis K. 9. Samuel 11. Santos K. 8. Tedesco N. 5. Vinicius Gugel
Substitutes
23. Alan (G) 13. Breno Roma 15. Diego Leandro 14. Donato 12. Douglas Marques (G) 17. Jupi 18. Matheus Chaves 16. Xavier	13. Diego 15. Juninho 16. Kauan F. 17. Marcio V. 41. Matheus 14. Vinicius

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Sousa Rocha Leandro J. ⚽,
20', Roger Carvalho ↓, Donato ↑,
33', Tedesco N. 🟨,
36', 2 - 0, Felipinho ⚽,
42', 3 - 0, Felipinho ⚽,
45+3', Wanderson 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Samuel ↓, Marcio Vitor ↑,
57', Tedesco N. ↓, Kauan F. ↑,
66', Vinicius Gugel ↓, Juninho ↑,
70', Felipinho ↓, Jupi ↑,
71', PH ↓, Xavier ↑,
74', 3 - 1, Santos K. ⚽,
76', Rony Fernandes ↓, Diego Leandro ↑,
83', Joao Vittor 🟨,
84', Joao Vittor ↓, Ferreira da Silva D. ↑,
85', Alemao ↓, Melo V. ↑,
86', Jamerson 🟨,
89', 3 - 2, Melo V. ⚽,
90', Luiz Felipe 🟨,

Preview

Tombense is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Avaí has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Avaí may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Tombense is the team to beat.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Tombense won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 1:2.5).

Including home match between the teams, Tombense won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tombense FC
Copa do Brasil
11.03.26	Confiança - Tombense	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
28.02.26	URT - Tombense	3:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
25.02.26	Tombense - Oratório	2:1 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
20.02.26	Tombense - URT	0:1 ✺
14.02.26	Athletic Club - Tombense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLWLT
- Avaí
Brazilian Serie B
22.03.26	Avaí - Juventude	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Recopa Catarinense
15.03.26	Avaí - Figueirense	4:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
10.03.26	Portuguesa - Avaí	2:1 penalties ✺
04.03.26	Avaí - Porto Vitória	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
28.02.26	Camboriú - Avaí	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
19.08.23	Avaí - Tombense	4:2
06.05.23	Tombense - Avaí	0:1

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