Match Info

BRAZIL: SERIE B - ROUND 20

Date: 30 July 2023, Sunday

Location: Almeidão (Tombos)

Referee: Pereira Sampaio S. (Bra)


	Tombense		Criciúma

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.25	3	3.1
	2.33	2.9	3.2
	2.45	3.07	3.34
	2.15	2.88	3.2
	2.35	3.14	3.2	Watch
	2.31	3.1	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↓ (2.75)	3.02 ↑ (3)	3.19 ↑ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tombense
40.2%

Draw
30.7%

Criciúma
29.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.1%

30.4%

36.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.4%

30.7%

36.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tombense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tombense's performance.

Criciúma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Criciúma might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tombense than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tombense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Criciúma than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Criciúma could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.6%	27.3%	9.1%

Tombense - Criciúma Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Tombense will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Criciúma will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tombense: 35.2% – 92%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Felipe Garcia (G) 2. Kevin 4. Ze Vitor 3. Augusto 6. Egidio 5. Bruno Silva (C) 8. Matheus Frizzo 10. Jaderson 7. Alexandre Jesus 9. Kleiton 11. Marcelinho	1. Gustavo (C) 27. Claudinho 33. Walisson 4. Rayan 6. Helder Santos 42. Miqueias 5. Leo Costa 8. Arilson 7. Fellipe Mateus 11. Fabinho 99. Tiago Marques
Substitutes
19. Alex Sandro 23. Djalma 16. Emerson 20. Fernandao 15. Guilherme Santos 12. Leo Lang (G) 13. Mateus Buiate 22. Pedro Costa 18. Pierre 21. Rafinha 14. Roger Carvalho 17. Ruan Levine	25. Alisson (G) 2. Cristovam 18. Crystopher 70. Italo Melo 21. Joao Carlos 13. Jonathan 14. Matheus Mancini 17. Romulo 15. Welinton Torrao
Coaches
Burse J.	Tencati C.

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 16 and 6).

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Tombense will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Tombense won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Tombense won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tombense FC
Brazilian Serie B
22.07.23	Mirassol - Tombense	2:0 ✺
18.07.23	Tombense - CRB Maceio	2:1 ✺
15.07.23	Ponte Preta - Tombense	0:1 ✺
08.07.23	Tombense - Sampaio Corrêa	0:1 ✺
30.06.23	Tombense - Chapecoense	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 LWWLW
- Criciúma EC
Brazilian Serie B
22.07.23	Criciúma - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:1 ✺
17.07.23	Botafogo SP - Criciúma	1:0 ✺
13.07.23	Criciúma - Guarani	1:1 ✺
08.07.23	ABC - Criciúma	0:1 ✺
01.07.23	Sampaio Corrêa - Criciúma	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
16.04.23	Criciúma - Tombense	2:0
05.11.22	Criciúma - Tombense	2:0
19.07.22	Tombense - Criciúma	1:0
Brazilian Serie C
01.11.20	Criciúma - Tombense	0:1
30.09.20	Tombense - Criciúma	1:0

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