Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 11

Date: 7 July 2025, Monday

Location: Estádio Moisés Lucarelli (Campinas)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, DAZN Brasil, IT tv Plus, Nosso Futebol+, Sky+, Zapping


	Ponte Preta		Tombense

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.95	2.9	3.8
	1.9	2.88	4.25	Watch
	1.89	2.94	4.83
				Watch
	2.05	2.75	3.75
	1.82	2.97	4.7	Watch
	1.72	3.1	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↑ (1.72)	2.92 ↓ (3.13)	4.35 ↓ (4.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ponte Preta
48.1%

Draw
31%

Tombense
20.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.5%

28.8%

18.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.2%

27.9%

18.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ponte Preta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Tombense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponte Preta than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ponte Preta, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tombense than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	20%	10%

Ponte Preta - Tombense Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Ponte Preta will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Tombense will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ponte Preta: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Ponte Preta will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Diogo Silva (G) 15. Artur 21. Dudu 10. Elvis 18. Emerson Santos 29. Everton Brito 7. Jean Dias 9. Jeh 25. Lucas Candido 2. Maguinho 34. Wanderson	1. Matheus Aurelio (G) 3. Ianson 11. Jefferson Renan 7. Joao Pedro 6. Kaike 2. Leo Pereira 8. Lucas Mila 10. Rafael Silva 5. Rickson 4. Roger Carvalho (C) 9. Ze Eduardo
Substitutes
77. Bruno Lopes 33. Danrlei Santos 35. Diego Tavares 20. Joao Gabriel 17. Jonas Toro 36. Leocovick 55. Leo Oliveira 27. Luiz Felipe 30. Matheus Kayser (G) 5. Rodrigo Souza 37. Serginho 6. Sergio Raphael	22. Adson 17. Andre Cardoso 20. Cleiton 12. Douglas Marques (G) 16. Dudu Mandai 18. Fabricio Dias 15. Fernando 21. Joao Vitor 13. Julio Henrique 19. Jupi 14. Wesley

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+2', Elvis 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
49', Lucas Candido 🟨,
57', Rafael Silva 🟨,
65', Lucas Candido ↓, Serginho ↑,
74', 1 - 0, Elvis (Pen),
74', Jeh 🟨,
76', Dudu ↓, Jonas Toro ↑,
76', Everton Brito ↓, Leo Oliveira ↑,
79', Lucas Mila ↓, Adson ↑,
79', Rafael Silva ↓, Joao Vitor ↑,
79', Jean Dias ↓, Diego Tavares ↑,
79', Elvis ↓, Luiz Felipe ↑,
85', Ze Eduardo ↓, Jupi ↑,
85', Jefferson Renan ↓, Julio Henrique ↑,
89', Rickson ↓, Andre Cardoso ↑,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: ) and 14).

Ponte Preta has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Tombense's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Ponte Preta will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Ponte Preta won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:1. (average 0.3:0.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Ponte Preta won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1. (average 0:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AA Ponte Preta
Brazilian Serie C
28.06.25	Maringá - Ponte Preta	0:1 ✺
14.06.25	Ponte Preta - ABC	0:0 ✺
02.06.25	Ponte Preta - Ypiranga	0:1 ✺
24.05.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Ponte Preta	0:1 ✺
17.05.25	Ponte Preta - Brusque	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WTLWL
- Tombense FC
Brazilian Serie C
29.06.25	Tombense - Náutico Capibaribe	0:2 ✺
15.06.25	Brusque - Tombense	0:0 ✺
01.06.25	Tombense - Anápolis	1:1 ✺
25.05.25	Ypiranga - Tombense	1:0 ✺
17.05.25	Tombense - CS Alagoano	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LTTLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
11.11.23	Tombense - Ponte Preta	0:1
15.07.23	Ponte Preta - Tombense	0:1
15.10.22	Tombense - Ponte Preta	0:0
03.07.22	Ponte Preta - Tombense	0:0

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