Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 9

Date: 26 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio João Cardoso (Tondela)

Referee: Bessa J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Albania	Tring Sport 3
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Croatia	SportKlub
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Denmark	Bold+, Sport Live
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 6, Free
Georgia	Silk Universal
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 6
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Portugal	Sport TV1
Serbia	Arena Sport 5
Slovakia	Arena sport 2
Slovenia	Sportklub
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 3
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Sport, MEGOGO Ukraine
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter
World	Triller TV+


	Tondela		Sporting Lisbon

	1	X	2
	9.5	6.25	1.22	Watch
	11.5	6.4	1.21	Watch
	9.88	6.02	1.26
	40.00	9.26	1.07	Watch
	10.5	5.9	1.25	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	16.28 ↑ (9.29)	6.77 ↑ (6)	1.2 ↓ (1.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tondela
5.9%

Draw
14.2%

Sporting Lisbon
79.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

10%

15.5%

74.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tondela has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Sporting Lisbon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sporting Lisbon's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	12.5%	87.5%

Tondela - Sporting Lisbon Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Sporting (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Sporting Lisbon will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Bernardo (G) 2. Bebeto (C) 20. Medina B. 4. Marques C. 60. Maviram E. 15. Sithole S. 97. Cicero 7. Pedro Maranhao 16. Rony Lopes 17. Cavaleiro I. 29. Siebatcheu J.	1. Silva R. (G) 22. Fresneda I. 26. Diomande O. 25. Inacio G. 20. Araujo M. 42. Hjulmand M. (C) 52. Simoes J. 10. Catamo G. 17. Trincao 8. Goncalves P. 97. Suarez L.
Substitutes
5. Afonso J. 30. Canizares L. (G) 79. Felix H. 48. Manso T. 32. Rodriguez J. 11. Rodriguez Y. 8. Tavares H. 21. Vita R. 67. Yarlen	27. Alisson Santos 89. Ioannidis F. 14. Kochorashvili G. 91. Mangas R. 2. Matheus Reis 72. Quaresma E. 7. Quenda G. 13. Vagiannidis G. 12. Virginia J. (G)
Coaches
Vieira I.	Borges R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
18', 0 - 1, Suarez L. ⚽, Goncalves P. (A),
20', Cavaleiro I. 🟨,
31', Pedro Maranhao 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Rony Lopes ↓, Rodriguez Y. ↑,
46', Cavaleiro I. ↓, Manso T. ↑,
55', Cicero 🟨,
59', 0 - 2, Goncalves P. ⚽, Trincao (A),
71', Siebatcheu J. ↓, Yarlen ↑,
71', Cicero ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
72', Fresneda I. 🟨,
73', Catamo G. ↓, Quenda G. ↑,
74', Suarez L. ↓, Ioannidis F. ↑,
84', Sithole S. ↓, Felix H. ↑,
84', Goncalves P. ↓, Alisson Santos ↑,
85', Araujo M. ↓, Matheus Reis ↑,
90', Simoes J. ↓, Kochorashvili G. ↑,
90+2', 0 - 3, Quenda G. ⚽, Matheus Reis (A),

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tondela won 0.

Recent performances by Tondela have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Sporting is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Tondela may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Tondela has had a series of away games.

In this match, Sporting is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Tondela: Medina B. (Red Card)

There will not play in Sporting: Braganca D. (Knee Injury) Santos N. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Sporting: Debast Z. (Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Tondela won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 12:33. (average 0.7:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Tondela won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 8:15. (average 0.9:1.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Sporting Lisbon - the odds 1.25 are the expected chance of winning is 74.47%, but this team recently wins 88% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Tondela
Taça de Portugal
19.10.25	Vila Real - Tondela	1:5 ✺
Club Friendly
08.10.25	Ferrol - Tondela	2:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
05.10.25	Rio Ave - Tondela	3:0 ✺
27.09.25	Santa Clara - Tondela	1:2 ✺
21.09.25	Tondela - Estrela da Amadora	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WTLWT
- Sporting Lisbon
UEFA Champions League
22.10.25	Sporting Lisbon - Olympique Marseille	2:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
18.10.25	Paços de Ferreira - Sporting Lisbon	2:3 ET ✺
Liga Portugal
05.10.25	Sporting Lisbon - Braga	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
01.10.25	Napoli - Sporting Lisbon	2:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
27.09.25	Estoril Praia - Sporting Lisbon	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Taça de Portugal
09.01.24	Sporting Lisbon - Tondela	4:0
Portuguese League Cup
23.12.23	Tondela - Sporting Lisbon	1:2
Liga Portugal
09.04.22	Tondela - Sporting Lisbon	1:3
28.11.21	Sporting Lisbon - Tondela	2:0
13.03.21	Tondela - Sporting Lisbon	0:1
01.11.20	Sporting Lisbon - Tondela	4:0
18.06.20	Sporting Lisbon - Tondela	2:0

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