Match Info

Championship - 1/8-finals

Date: 5 May 2026, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: BMO Field (Toronto, ON) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Canada	19:30	OneSoccer
Usa	19:30	FOX One, FOX Sports 2, FOX Sports App, Foxsports.com


	Toronto FC		Atlético Ottawa

	1	X	2
	1.24	5.15	9.2
	1.25	5.13	9.22
	1.50	3.88	6.60	Watch
	1.24	5.15	9.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.31 ↓ (1.33)	4.83 ↑ (4.6)	8.72 ↓ (9.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toronto FC
70.4%

Draw
19.1%

Atlético Ottawa
10.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

69.9%

20.2%

9.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

14.1%

14.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toronto FC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Atlético Ottawa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toronto FC than the current prediction. (-21.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Toronto FC that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Ottawa than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	20%	20%

Toronto FC - Atlético Ottawa Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Toronto will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gavran L. (G) 38. Gilman J. 25. Zimmerman W. 75. Fisher R. 19. Franklin K. 56. Bossenberry A. 21. Osorio J. (C) 71. Cimermancic M. 11. Etienne D. 29. Kerr D. 64. Nolan J.	1. Crampton T. (G) 18. Mbomio R. 23. Abatneh N. A. S. 5. Aguilar D. 14. Assi J. 2. Castro J. 10. Aparicio M. (C) 84. Kozlovskiy S. 11. Antinoro G. 7. Garcia E. 13. Tabla B.
Substitutes
17. Aristizabal E. 79. Bank F. 14. Coello A. 77. De Rosario A. (G) 44. Edwards R. 78. Henry M. 12. Monlouis Z. 20. Salloi D. 23. Yarbrough W. (G)	37. Arnaud T. 28. Cloutier L. 30. Habibullah K. 19. Khoury R. 9. Myklebust E. 88. Papuaga R. (G) 6. Stojadinovic M. 27. Timoteo W. 8. Villal J.
Coaches
Fraser R.	Mejia D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', 1 - 0, Kerr D. ⚽, Etienne D. (A),
40', Aguilar D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Osorio J. ↓, Coello A. ↑,
54', Garcia E. 🟨,
56', Antinoro G. 🟨,
63', Zimmerman W. ↓, Monlouis Z. ↑,
63', Nolan J. ↓, Edwards R. ↑,
63', Kerr D. ↓, Aristizabal E. ↑,
63', Assi J. ↓, Timoteo W. ↑,
68', Etienne D. 🟨,
71', 1 - 1, Tabla B. ⚽,
73', Cimermancic M. ↓, Henry M. ↑,
73', Garcia E. ↓, Myklebust E. ↑,
81', 1 - 2, Tabla B. ⚽,
89', Aguilar D. ↓, Habibullah K. ↑,
89', Castro J. ↓, Stojadinovic M. ↑,
90+5', Coello A. 🟨,
90+6', 1 - 3, Tabla B. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

Toronto has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Atlético Ottawa is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Atlético Ottawa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Toronto has had a series of home games.

Recently, Atlético Ottawa has had a series of away games.

In this match, Toronto is the undisputed favorite.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toronto FC
MLS
02.05.26	Toronto FC - San Jose Earthquakes	1:1 ✺
25.04.26	Toronto FC - Atlanta United	1:2 ✺
22.04.26	Toronto FC - Philadelphia Union	3:3 ✺
18.04.26	Toronto FC - Austin FC	3:3 ✺
11.04.26	Toronto FC - Cincinnati	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 TLTTT
- Atlético Ottawa
Canadian Premier League
01.05.26	Inter Toronto - Atlético Ottawa	4:1 ✺
26.04.26	Atlético Ottawa - Vancouver FC	1:1 ✺
19.04.26	Supra du Québec - Atlético Ottawa	0:1 ✺
12.04.26	Cavalry - Atlético Ottawa	3:1 ✺
04.04.26	Forge - Atlético Ottawa	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LTWLL

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