Match Info

MLS

Date: 22 April 2026, Wednesday

Location: BMO Field (Toronto, ON)

Referee: Bazakos F. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	MLS Season Pass
World	Apple TV International


	Toronto FC		Philadelphia Union

	1	X	2
	3	3.4	2.32	Watch
	2.92	3.35	2.42	Watch
	2.97	3.54	2.46
	2.81	3.42	2.47	Watch
	2.75	3.2	2.4
	3.05	3.46	2.42	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.92 ↑ (2.29)	3.4 ↑ (3.38)	2.42 ↓ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Toronto FC
32.6%

Draw
28%

Philadelphia Union
39.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.4%

27.4%

32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.2%

26.2%

30.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toronto FC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Toronto FC's form might have worsened.

Philadelphia Union has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Philadelphia Union's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toronto FC than the current prediction. (+9.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Toronto FC, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Philadelphia Union than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Philadelphia Union, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
61.5%	7.7%	30.8%

Toronto FC - Philadelphia Union Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Toronto will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Philadelphia will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Toronto: 35% – 88%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Philadelphia (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Philadelphia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gavran L. (G) 19. Franklin K. 14. Coello A. 12. Monlouis Z. 25. Zimmerman W. 22. Laryea R. 8. Cifuentes J. 21. Osorio J. (C) 20. Salloi D. 29. Kerr D. 9. Sargent J.	18. Blake A. (C) 26. Harriel N. 5. Sery Larsen J. 29. Makhanya O. 39. Westfield F. 8. Bueno J. 21. Jean Jacques D. 4. Lukic J. 19. Vassilev I. 10. Iloski M. 9. Damiani B.
Substitutes
17. Aristizabal E. 71. Cimermancic M. 44. Edwards R. 11. Etienne D. 75. Fisher R. 78. Henry M. 76. Stefanovic L. 99. Vilsaint J. 23. Yarbrough W. (G)	23. Alladoh E. 11. Bedoya A. 16. Bender B. 51. Jakupovic M. 2. Martinez G. 20. Ndinga P. 14. Rafanello J. 76. Rick A. (G) 6. Sullivan C.
Coaches
Fraser R.	Carnell B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', Osorio J. 🟨,
16', Salloi D. 🟨,
45+4', 0 - 1, Iloski M. ⚽, Lukic J. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 2)
46', Coello A. 🟨,
49', Laryea R. 🟨,
53', 0 - 2, Jean Jacques D. ⚽,
54', Kerr D. ↓, Henry M. ↑,
56', 1 - 2, Sargent J. ⚽, Salloi D. (A),
61', Sery Larsen J. 🟨,
64', 2 - 2, Franklin K. ⚽, Cifuentes J. (A),
65', Zimmerman W. ↓, Stefanovic L. ↑,
65', Vassilev I. ↓, Bedoya A. ↑,
65', Jean Jacques D. 🟨,
78', Makhanya O. 🟨,
79', Damiani B. ↓, Alladoh E. ↑,
82', Lukic J. ↓, Jakupovic M. ↑,
82', Iloski M. ↓, Sullivan C. ↑,
89', 2 - 3, Harriel N. ⚽, Bedoya A. (A),
90+3', Bedoya A. 🟨,
90+6', 3 - 3, Gavran L. ⚽, Coello A. (A),

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 2.

Toronto is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Philadelphia's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Toronto has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Toronto: Corbeanu T. (Knee Injury) Gomis N. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Matheus Pereira (Groin Injury) Mihailovic D. (Pelvis Injury) Wingo H. (Muscle Injury) Zimmerman W. (Calf Injury)

There will not play in Philadelphia: Anello A. (Muscle Injury) Olivas S. (Ankle Injury) Sullivan Q. (Leg Injury)

There are questionable in Toronto: Kuscevic B. (Groin Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 33:32. (average 1.7:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Toronto won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 23:12. (average 2.1:1.1).

Last Results with these Odds

Toronto FC - the odds 2.29 are the expected chance of winning is 40.43%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toronto FC
MLS
18.04.26	Toronto FC - Austin FC	3:3 ✺
11.04.26	Toronto FC - Cincinnati	1:1 ✺
04.04.26	Toronto FC - Colorado Rapids	3:2 ✺
21.03.26	Toronto FC - Columbus Crew	2:1 ✺
14.03.26	Toronto FC - New York Red Bulls	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 TTWWT
- Philadelphia Union
MLS
18.04.26	Philadelphia Union - DC United	0:0 ✺
11.04.26	CF Montréal - Philadelphia Union	1:2 ✺
04.04.26	Charlotte - Philadelphia Union	2:1 ✺
21.03.26	Philadelphia Union - Chicago Fire	1:2 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
18.03.26	Club América - Philadelphia Union	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 TWLLT

Latest Head to Head

MLS
09.08.25	Philadelphia Union - Toronto FC	1:1
28.05.25	Toronto FC - Philadelphia Union	1:2
13.07.24	Toronto FC - Philadelphia Union	2:1
29.05.24	Philadelphia Union - Toronto FC	0:0
30.08.23	Toronto FC - Philadelphia Union	3:1
22.04.23	Philadelphia Union - Toronto FC	4:2
09.10.22	Philadelphia Union - Toronto FC	4:0

Upcoming Matches