Match Info

National League South - Round 36

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Plainmoor (Torquay)


	Torquay United		Chelmsford City

	1	X	2
	1.92	3.55	3.45
	1.96	3.85	3.39
	1.93	3.89	3.4	Watch
	1.91	3.5	3.5
	1.97	3.62	3.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↑ (1.8)	3.68 ↓ (3.72)	3.45 ↓ (3.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Torquay United
47.9%

Draw
25.2%

Chelmsford City
26.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.6%

25%

23.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.2%

24.8%

23.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Torquay United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Chelmsford City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Torquay United than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chelmsford City than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Torquay United - Chelmsford City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
7', 0 - 1, Adams C. ⚽,
38', 0 - 2, Murphy J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
62', 0 - 3, Taylor L. ⚽,
86', 0 - 4, Barbrook H. ⚽,
90+6', 0 - 5, Tompkins B. ⚽,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Torquay won 2.

Torquay is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Chelmsford has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Chelmsford may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Torquay has had a series of away games.

In this match, Torquay is considered a favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Torquay won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:9. (average 1.6:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Torquay won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:4. (average 2.3:1.3).

Outrights of English National League South for now

Torquay: 14.21% Chelmsford: 5.21%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Torquay	10	3	4	3	13:14	-1	13
16	Chelmsford	9	1	8	0	9:8	1	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Torquay United
English National League South
24.02.26	Worthing - Torquay United	3:1 ✺
21.02.26	Eastbourne Borough - Torquay United	4:2 ✺
14.02.26	Torquay United - Maidenhead United	1:1 ✺
10.02.26	Chippenham Town - Torquay United	1:0 ✺
03.02.26	Dover Athletic - Torquay United	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LLTLW
- Chelmsford City
English National League South
23.02.26	Chelmsford City - Hemel Hempstead Town	1:0 ✺
21.02.26	Chelmsford City - Salisbury	2:2 ✺
16.02.26	Chelmsford City - Maidstone United	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Hampton & Richmond Borough - Chelmsford City	1:3 ✺
31.01.26	Slough Town - Chelmsford City	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WTTWL

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
29.11.25	Chelmsford City - Torquay United	0:2
22.02.25	Chelmsford City - Torquay United	3:2
02.11.24	Torquay United - Chelmsford City	2:2
23.12.23	Chelmsford City - Torquay United	2:0
09.09.23	Torquay United - Chelmsford City	2:1
02.04.19	Torquay United - Chelmsford City	3:1
04.08.18	Chelmsford City - Torquay United	0:0

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