Match Info

National League South - Round 39

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Plainmoor (Torquay)


	Torquay United		Chesham United

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.5	2.78
	2.34	3.84	2.66
	2.29	3.97	2.62	Watch
	2.3	3.5	2.7
	2.24	3.6	2.59
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↑ (1.83)	3.68 ↓ (3.7)	2.67 ↓ (3.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Torquay United
40.4%

Draw
25.1%

Chesham United
34.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.3%

24.8%

24.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.1%

25.2%

24.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Torquay United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Torquay United's form might have worsened.

Chesham United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Chesham United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Torquay United than the current prediction. (+10.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Torquay United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chesham United than the current prediction. (-10.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Chesham United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Torquay United - Chesham United Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Torquay (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2', 0 - 1, Oliyide K. ⚽,
36', 1 - 1, Fish S. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
59', Young A. 🟥,
74', 2 - 1, Hayfield D. ⚽,
77', Tizzard W. 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Torquay won 3.

Torquay has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Chesham has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Chesham may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Torquay is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Torquay won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:5. (average 1.2:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Torquay won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Outrights of English National League South for now

Torquay: 14.21% Chesham: 0.78%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Torquay	10	3	4	3	13:14	-1	13
19	Chesham	10	3	1	6	16:19	-3	10

Last Results with these Odds

Torquay United - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50.29%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Torquay United
English National League South
10.03.26	Torquay United - Salisbury	2:1 ✺
07.03.26	Ebbsfleet United - Torquay United	3:0 ✺
03.03.26	Torquay United - Farnborough	2:2 ✺
28.02.26	Torquay United - Chelmsford City	0:5 ✺
24.02.26	Worthing - Torquay United	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 WLTLL
- Chesham United
English National League South
07.03.26	Chesham United - Weston-super-Mare	4:0 ✺
03.03.26	Worthing - Chesham United	2:0 ✺
28.02.26	Dorking Wanderers - Chesham United	1:1 ✺
24.02.26	Chesham United - Dagenham & Redbridge	0:1 ✺
21.02.26	Chesham United - Ebbsfleet United	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
18.10.25	Chesham United - Torquay United	1:0
05.04.25	Torquay United - Chesham United	1:2
26.08.24	Chesham United - Torquay United	2:3
English FA Trophy
19.12.20	Chesham United - Torquay United	0:1
15.12.15	Chesham United - Torquay United	0:2
13.12.15	Torquay United - Chesham United	0:0

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