Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 15

Date: 6 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Stade de la Beaujoire (Nantes)

Referee: Bastien B. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 8, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 5, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Israel	5 PLUS Israel
Italy	Ligue 1+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	Caliente TV, FOX One
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV3
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 6
Slovakia	Voyo
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+


	Nantes		Lens

	1	X	2
	5	3.9	1.67	Watch
	4.9	3.95	1.68
	5.15	3.95	1.7
	4.95	3.94	1.68	Watch
	4.8	3.7	1.67
	5.12	4	1.71	Watch
	5	3.75	1.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.99 ↑ (4.75)	3.88 ↓ (4.02)	1.69 ↑ (1.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nantes
19.1%

Draw
24.5%

Lens
56.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.9%

23.5%

56.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.3%

22.8%

58.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nantes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Lens has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nantes than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lens than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5.3%	13.2%	81.6%

Nantes - Lens Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Lens (2.28) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Lens (1.24) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.75 - Nantes (1.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Lens will win (28 of 35 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 66.75% – 93.25%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lens will win (9 of 12 users predict this - 75%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Nantes (votes: 2 - 13.3%). Lens (votes: 11 - 73.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 13.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lopes A. (G) 98. Amian K. (C) 6. Awaziem C. 78. Tati T. 3. Cozza N. 8. Lepenant J. 5. Kwon Hyeok-Kyu 52. Deuff B. 10. Abline M. 19. El Arabi Y. 11. Guirassy B.	40. Risser R. (G) 25. Ganiou I. 6. Baidoo S. 20. Sarr M. 2. Aguilar R. 8. Sangare M. 5. Bulatovic A. 14. Udol M. 10. Thauvin F. 22. Said W. (C) 11. Edouard O.
Substitutes
90. Benhattab Y. 14. Camara A. 30. Carlgren P. (G) 18. Centonze F. 7. Hong Hyun-Seok 15. Lahdo M. 31. Mostafa Mohamed 26. Radakovic U. 17. Tabibou D.	23. Abdulhamid S. 32. Antonio K. 26. Bermont A. 38. Fofana R. 1. Gurtner R. (G) 15. Ojediran H. 19. Sima A. 7. Sotoca F. 18. Sylla F.
Coaches
Castro L.	Sage P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
34', 0 - 1, Thauvin F. ⚽, Aguilar R. (A),
38', El Arabi Y. (Penalty Awarded),
38', 1 - 1, El Arabi Y. ⚽,
45', Guirassy B. ↓, Lahdo M. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
59', El Arabi Y. ↓, Mostafa Mohamed ↑,
60', Deuff B. ↓, Tabibou D. ↑,
69', Edouard O. ↓, Fofana R. ↑,
81', 1 - 2, Said W. ⚽, Udol M. (A),
83', Tabibou D. 🟨,
87', Cozza N. ↓, Centonze F. ↑,
88', Kwon Hyeok-Kyu ↓, Camara A. ↑,
90+2', Said W. ↓, Sotoca F. ↑,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 16 in the zone Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nantes won 2.

Nantes is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Lens is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Lens is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Nantes: Coquelin F. (Hamstring Injury) Leroux L. (Thigh Injury) Mwanga J. (Red Card)

There will not play in Lens: Gradit J. (Thigh Injury) Guilavogui M. (Red Card) Jhoanner Chavez (Thigh Injury) Thomasson A. (Yellow Cards)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Nantes won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 24:26. (average 1.4:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Nantes won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:10. (average 1.8:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Nantes
French Ligue 1
30.11.25	Lyon - Nantes	3:0 ✺
23.11.25	Nantes - Lorient	1:1 ✺
08.11.25	Le Havre - Nantes	1:1 ✺
02.11.25	Nantes - Metz	0:2 ✺
29.10.25	Nantes - Monaco	3:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LTTLL
- RC Lens
French Ligue 1
30.11.25	Angers - Lens	1:2 ✺
22.11.25	Lens - Strasbourg	1:0 ✺
08.11.25	Monaco - Lens	1:4 ✺
02.11.25	Lens - Lorient	3:0 ✺
29.10.25	Metz - Lens	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
23.02.25	Nantes - Lens	3:1
09.11.24	Lens - Nantes	3:2
03.02.24	Nantes - Lens	0:1
28.10.23	Lens - Nantes	4:0
Coupe De France
01.03.23	Nantes - Lens	2:1
French Ligue 1
19.02.23	Lens - Nantes	3:1
18.09.22	Nantes - Lens	0:0

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