Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 16

Date: 13 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Stade Jean Bouin (Paris)

Referee: Dechepy B. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, TV5 Monde Africa, TV5 Monde Maghreb-Orient
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN 4
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD, TV5 Monde Asia
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Europe	TV5 Monde Europe
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3
Israel	5 LIVE Israel
Italy	Ligue 1+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4
Mexico	Caliente TV, FOX One, Fox Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV2
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Slovakia	Voyo
South-america	ESPN 2 South, ESPN 4 South, TV5 Monde Amerique Latine
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	K+, ON Plus, TV 360


	Paris FC		Toulouse

	1	X	2
	2.8	3.2	2.55	Watch
	2.82	3.15	2.62
	2.81	3.24	2.76
	2.78	3.18	2.64	Watch
	2.7	3.1	2.5
	2.83	3.26	2.74	Watch
	2.75	3.14	2.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.78 ↑ (2.34)	3.18 ↓ (3.42)	2.65 ↓ (2.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paris FC
34.2%

Draw
29.9%

Toulouse
35.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.4%

27.6%

31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.8%

27.3%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paris FC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Paris FC's form might have worsened.

Toulouse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paris FC than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Paris FC, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.5%	51.9%	29.6%

Paris FC - Toulouse Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Paris FC will win (votes: 5 - 19.2%). Toulouse will win (votes: 8 - 30.8%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 30.8% – 69.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Toulouse (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Trapp K. (G) 14. Traore H. 5. Mbow M. 6. Otavio 2. Ollila T. 4. Marchetti V. 10. Kebbal I. 21. Lopez M. (C) 17. Camara A. 27. Simon M. 93. Ikone J.	1. Restes G. (G) 3. McKenzie M. 4. Cresswell C. 2. Nicolaisen R. (C) 19. Sidibe D. 45. Vossah A. 23. Casseres C. 24. Methalie D. 11. Hidalgo S. 10. Gboho Y. 20. Emersonn
Substitutes
13. Cafaro M. 28. De Smet T. 12. Dicko N. 9. Geubbels W. 15. Kolodziejczak T. 11. Krasso J. 20. Lopez J. 16. Nkambadio O. (G) 19. Sangui N.	31. Edjouma N. 16. Haug K. (G) 12. Kamanzi W. 35. Koumbassa S. 9. Magri F. 22. Messali R. 77. Sauer M. 8. Schmidt N. 7. Vignolo J.
Coaches
Gilli S.	Martinez C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
19', Sidibe D. (Penalty Awarded),
29', 0 - 1, Hidalgo S. ⚽,
37', 0 - 2, Gboho Y. ⚽, Emersonn (A),
45', Methalie D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
52', Traore H. ↓, Sangui N. ↑,
63', Hidalgo S. ↓, Magri F. ↑,
64', Methalie D. ↓, Kamanzi W. ↑,
69', 0 - 3, Gboho Y. ⚽, Sidibe D. (A),
70', Emersonn ↓, Messali R. ↑,
70', Marchetti V. ↓, Geubbels W. ↑,
73', Camara A. 🟨,
78', Ikone J. ↓, Lopez J. ↑,
78', Ollila T. ↓, De Smet T. ↑,
78', Simon M. ↓, Krasso J. ↑,
84', Sidibe D. ↓, Edjouma N. ↑,
84', Gboho Y. ↓, Vignolo J. ↑,
88', Lopez M. 🟨,
90', Otavio 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 14 and 10).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Paris FC: Alakouch S. (Injury) Chergui S. (Hamstring Injury) Hamel P. (Calf Injury) Lees-Melou P. (Shin Injury)

There will not play in Toulouse: Azizi I. (Knee Injury) Donnum A. (Suspended) Francis A. (Broken Leg)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Paris FC won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:6. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Paris FC won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 2.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paris FC
French Ligue 1
07.12.25	Le Havre - Paris FC	0:0 ✺
29.11.25	Paris FC - Auxerre	1:1 ✺
23.11.25	Lille - Paris FC	4:2 ✺
07.11.25	Paris FC - Rennes	0:1 ✺
01.11.25	Monaco - Paris FC	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 TTLLW
- Toulouse FC
French Ligue 1
06.12.25	Toulouse - Strasbourg	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Olympique Marseille - Toulouse	2:2 ✺
23.11.25	Toulouse - Angers	0:1 ✺
09.11.25	Lorient - Toulouse	1:1 ✺
02.11.25	Toulouse - Le Havre	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WTLTT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
02.04.22	Toulouse - Paris FC	2:1
23.10.21	Paris FC - Toulouse	2:2
01.05.21	Paris FC - Toulouse	3:1
05.01.21	Toulouse - Paris FC	1:0

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