Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 16

Date: 13 December 2025, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stade Jean Bouin (Paris) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Dechepy B. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	StarTimes App, TV5 Monde Africa, TV5 Monde Maghreb-Orient
Argentina	17:05	Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN 4
Armenia	00:05	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD, TV5 Monde Asia
Austria	21:05	DAZN
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:05	Arena Sport 5
Bulgaria	22:05	Nova Sport
Canada	15:05	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
China	04:05	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	15:05	ESPN 2
Croatia	21:05	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:05	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech Republic	21:05	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	21:05	Viaplay
Europe	—	TV5 Monde Europe
Finland	22:05	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
France	21:05	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Georgia	00:05	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	21:05	DAZN Deutsch
Hong Kong	04:05	beIN Sports 3
Israel	22:05	5 LIVE Israel
Italy	21:05	Ligue 1+
Japan	05:05	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	21:05	Arena Premium 4
Mexico	14:05	Caliente TV, FOX One, Fox Sports
Netherlands	21:05	Viaplay
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	21:05	Viaplay
Peru	15:05	Disney+
Portugal	20:05	Sport TV2
Russia	23:05	Okko Sport
Serbia	21:05	Arena Premium 4
Slovakia	21:05	Voyo
South America	—	ESPN 2 South, ESPN 4 South, TV5 Monde Amerique Latine
South Korea	05:05	Coupang Play
Sweden	21:05	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
Switzerland	21:05	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	23:05	beIN Connect
Ukraine	22:05	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Kingdom	20:05	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	17:05	Disney+
Usa	15:05	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	16:05	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	03:05	K+, ON Plus, TV 360


	Paris FC		Toulouse

	1	X	2
	2.8	3.2	2.55	Watch
	2.82	3.15	2.62
	2.81	3.24	2.76
	2.78	3.18	2.64	Watch
	2.7	3.1	2.5
	2.83	3.26	2.74	Watch
	2.75	3.14	2.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.78 ↑ (2.34)	3.18 ↓ (3.42)	2.65 ↓ (2.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paris FC
34.2%

Draw
29.9%

Toulouse
35.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

40.4%

27.6%

31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.8%

27.3%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paris FC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Paris FC's form might have worsened.

Toulouse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paris FC than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Paris FC, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.5%	51.9%	29.6%

Paris FC - Toulouse Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Paris FC will win (votes: 5 - 19.2%). Toulouse will win (votes: 8 - 30.8%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 30.8% – 69.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Toulouse (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Trapp K. (G) 14. Traore H. 5. Mbow M. 6. Otavio 2. Ollila T. 4. Marchetti V. 10. Kebbal I. 21. Lopez M. (C) 17. Camara A. 27. Simon M. 93. Ikone J.	1. Restes G. (G) 3. McKenzie M. 4. Cresswell C. 2. Nicolaisen R. (C) 19. Sidibe D. 45. Vossah A. 23. Casseres C. 24. Methalie D. 11. Hidalgo S. 10. Gboho Y. 20. Emersonn
Substitutes
13. Cafaro M. 28. De Smet T. 12. Dicko N. 9. Geubbels W. 15. Kolodziejczak T. 11. Krasso J. 20. Lopez J. 16. Nkambadio O. (G) 19. Sangui N.	31. Edjouma N. 16. Haug K. (G) 12. Kamanzi W. 35. Koumbassa S. 9. Magri F. 22. Messali R. 77. Sauer M. 8. Schmidt N. 7. Vignolo J.
Coaches
Gilli S.	Martinez C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
19', Sidibe D. (Penalty Awarded),
29', 0 - 1, Hidalgo S. ⚽,
37', 0 - 2, Gboho Y. ⚽, Emersonn (A),
45', Methalie D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
52', Traore H. ↓, Sangui N. ↑,
63', Hidalgo S. ↓, Magri F. ↑,
64', Methalie D. ↓, Kamanzi W. ↑,
69', 0 - 3, Gboho Y. ⚽, Sidibe D. (A),
70', Emersonn ↓, Messali R. ↑,
70', Marchetti V. ↓, Geubbels W. ↑,
73', Camara A. 🟨,
78', Ikone J. ↓, Lopez J. ↑,
78', Ollila T. ↓, De Smet T. ↑,
78', Simon M. ↓, Krasso J. ↑,
84', Sidibe D. ↓, Edjouma N. ↑,
84', Gboho Y. ↓, Vignolo J. ↑,
88', Lopez M. 🟨,
90', Otavio 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 14 and 10).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Paris FC: Alakouch S. (Injury) Chergui S. (Hamstring Injury) Hamel P. (Calf Injury) Lees-Melou P. (Shin Injury)

There will not play in Toulouse: Azizi I. (Knee Injury) Donnum A. (Suspended) Francis A. (Broken Leg)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Paris FC won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:6. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Paris FC won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 2.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paris FC
French Ligue 1
07.12.25	Le Havre - Paris FC	0:0 ✺
29.11.25	Paris FC - Auxerre	1:1 ✺
23.11.25	Lille - Paris FC	4:2 ✺
07.11.25	Paris FC - Rennes	0:1 ✺
01.11.25	Monaco - Paris FC	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 TTLLW
- Toulouse FC
French Ligue 1
06.12.25	Toulouse - Strasbourg	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Olympique Marseille - Toulouse	2:2 ✺
23.11.25	Toulouse - Angers	0:1 ✺
09.11.25	Lorient - Toulouse	1:1 ✺
02.11.25	Toulouse - Le Havre	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WTLTT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
02.04.22	Toulouse - Paris FC	2:1
23.10.21	Paris FC - Toulouse	2:2
01.05.21	Paris FC - Toulouse	3:1
05.01.21	Toulouse - Paris FC	1:0

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