Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 31

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadium de Toulouse (Toulouse)

Referee: Turpin C. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD, TV5 Monde Pacifique
Austria	DAZN
Bolivia	ESPN 2
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Caze TV, Claro TV+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Ecuador	ESPN 2
Finland	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Premium
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, Now Player
Israel	5 PLUS Israel
Italy	Ligue 1+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	ART Sport 4
Mexico	FOX One, FOX Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Paraguay	ESPN 2
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 2
Poland	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	Sport TV3
Romania	Voyo
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 1
Slovakia	Nova Sport 3, Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South-america	TV5 Monde Amerique Latine
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz, TV5 Monde
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 2, Inter
Vietnam	ON Plus, TV 360, VTVcab
World	Onefootball


	Toulouse		Monaco

	1	X	2
	4.2	4.1	1.73	Watch
	4.45	3.95	1.75
	4.5	4.11	1.78
	4.11	4.03	1.78	Watch
	4	3.8	1.73
	4.57	4.27	1.78	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.31 ↑ (2.96)	4.04 ↑ (3.51)	1.76 ↓ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toulouse
22.2%

Draw
23.6%

Monaco
54.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32%

26.9%

41.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.3%

26.3%

42%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toulouse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Toulouse's form might have worsened.

Monaco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Monaco's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Toulouse, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Monaco than the current prediction. (-12.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Monaco, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
2.9%	14.7%	82.4%

Toulouse - Monaco Predictions

Users Predictions: 34 users predict this event. Toulouse will win (votes: 1 - 2.9%). Monaco will win (votes: 28 - 82.4%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 14.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Monaco: 69.6% – 95.2%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Monaco (1.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Monaco (1.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Monaco (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Restes G. (G) 3. McKenzie M. 4. Cresswell C. 2. Nicolaisen R. (C) 45. Vossah A. 18. Demba P. 23. Casseres C. 24. Methalie D. 15. Donnum A. 11. Hidalgo S. 13. Russell-Rowe J.	1. Hradecky L. (G) 4. Teze J. 5. Kehrer T. 25. Faes W. 13. Mawissa C. 15. Camara L. 6. Zakaria D. (C) 11. Akliouche M. 31. Fati A. 24. Adingra S. 9. Balogun F.
Substitutes
37. Azizi I. 20. Emersonn 16. Haug K. (G) 12. Kamanzi W. 35. Koumbassa S. 40. Said Mchindra N. (G) 77. Sauer M. 19. Sidibe D. 7. Vignolo J.	23. Bamba A. 14. Biereth M. 28. Coulibaly M. 3. Dier E. 10. Golovin A. 16. Kohn P. (G) 44. Nibombe S. 8. Pogba P. 49. Toure I.
Coaches
Martinez C.	Pocognoli S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
6', 0 - 1, Teze J. ⚽, Adingra S. (A),
18', 0 - 2, Camara L. ⚽, Akliouche M. (A),
31', Cresswell C. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
61', Fati A. ↓, Golovin A. ↑,
61', 1 - 2, Russell-Rowe J. ⚽, Methalie D. (A),
62', Mawissa C. 🟨,
66', Nicolaisen R. 🟨,
74', Russell-Rowe J. ↓, Emersonn ↑,
75', Akliouche M. ↓, Dier E. ↑,
75', Hradecky L. 🟨,
79', Vossah A. ↓, Sauer M. ↑,
79', Hidalgo S. ↓, Azizi I. ↑,
84', Balogun F. ↓, Biereth M. ↑,
84', Adingra S. ↓, Pogba P. ↑,
90', 2 - 2, Emersonn ⚽,
90+1', Demba P. ↓, Vignolo J. ↑,
90+1', Methalie D. ↓, Kamanzi W. ↑,
90+2', Sauer M. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 12 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 1.

Toulouse has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Monaco is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Toulouse may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Monaco is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Toulouse: Francis A. (Broken Leg) Gboho Y. (Red Card) Magri F. (Knee Injury) Messali R. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Monaco: Brunner P. (Injury) Caio Henrique (Thigh Injury) Idumbo S. (Shoulder Injury) Minamino T. (Knee Injury) Ouattara K. (Knee Injury) Salisu M. (Knee Injury) Vanderson (Thigh Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 20:38. (average 1:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Toulouse won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 11:17. (average 1.1:1.7).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Monaco: 8.18% Toulouse: 0.43%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Monaco	5	4	1	0	8:3	5	13
13	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	7:9	-2	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toulouse FC
Coupe De France
21.04.26	Lens - Toulouse	4:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
17.04.26	Lens - Toulouse	3:2 ✺
12.04.26	Toulouse - Lille	0:4 ✺
03.04.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Toulouse	3:1 ✺
21.03.26	Toulouse - Lorient	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 LLLLW
- AS Monaco
French Ligue 1
19.04.26	Monaco - Auxerre	2:2 ✺
10.04.26	Paris FC - Monaco	4:1 ✺
05.04.26	Monaco - Olympique Marseille	2:1 ✺
22.03.26	Lyon - Monaco	1:2 ✺
14.03.26	Monaco - Brest	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 TLWWW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
25.10.25	Monaco - Toulouse	1:0
07.03.25	Toulouse - Monaco	1:1
07.12.24	Monaco - Toulouse	2:0
18.02.24	Monaco - Toulouse	1:2
20.12.23	Toulouse - Monaco	1:2
03.06.23	Monaco - Toulouse	1:2
06.11.22	Toulouse - Monaco	0:2

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