Match Info

League Two - Round 38

Date: 17 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: Prenton Park (Birkenhead)

Referee: Dowle K. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Tranmere Rovers		Harrogate Town

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.1	3.2
	2.1	3.4	3.25
	2.22	3.2	3.2
	2.28	3.3	3.3
	2.22	3.25	3.22	Watch
	2.2	3	3.2
	2.27	3.13	3.23	Watch
	1.8	3.6	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↑ (1.8)	3.25 ↓ (3.5)	3.33 ↓ (4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tranmere Rovers
43.2%

Draw
28.7%

Harrogate Town
28.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.9%

26.2%

22.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.7%

23.5%

25.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tranmere Rovers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tranmere Rovers's form might have worsened.

Harrogate Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Harrogate Town's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tranmere Rovers than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Harrogate Town than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.7%	14.3%	50%

Tranmere Rovers - Harrogate Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Tranmere will win (votes: 5 - 35.7%). Harrogate will win (votes: 7 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Harrogate: 23.8% – 76.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Harrogate (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Harrogate (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Harrogate (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Marosi M. (G) 28. Negru S. 5. Smith N. 30. McGowan A. 2. Norman C. 26. Plant J. 25. Warrington L. 3. Brough P. 7. Whitaker C. 29. Ironside J. (C) 11. Patrick O.	13. Gray H. (G) 16. Headman C. 31. Heffernan C. 30. Gibson L. 3. Slater J. 8. Morris B. 4. Evans J. (C) 21. Taylor E. 19. Hill T. 22. Smith R. 18. Muldoon J.
Substitutes
12. Barrett J. (G) 23. Bristow E. 31. Dickov M. 42. Kenneh N. 16. Lowe J. 32. Obiero Z. 17. Solomon S.	12. Acquah E. 38. Brenan T. 24. Cass L. 11. Duke-McKenna S. 23. Sutton E. 17. Sutton L. 33. Waller S. (G)
Coaches
Wild P.	Weaver S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
9', 0 - 1, Smith R. ⚽, Gibson L. (A),
11', 0 - 2, Headman C. ⚽, Evans J. (A),
39', 0 - 3, Headman C. ⚽, Hill T. (A),
45', Norman C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Norman C. ↓, Obiero Z. ↑,
46', Warrington L. ↓, Kenneh N. ↑,
50', Whitaker C. 🟨,
59', Hill T. 🟨,
60', Patrick O. ↓, Solomon S. ↑,
66', Hill T. ↓, Brenan T. ↑,
66', Plant J. ↓, Dickov M. ↑,
79', Kenneh N. 🟨,
80', Evans J. ↓, Sutton L. ↑,
80', Muldoon J. ↓, Acquah E. ↑,
84', Smith R. ↓, Sutton E. ↑,
84', Taylor E. ↓, Duke-McKenna S. ↑,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 20 and 24 in the zone Relegation ~ National League).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tranmere won 4.

Tranmere is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Harrogate has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Tranmere may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Tranmere has had a series of away games.

Tranmere might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Tranmere: Jennings C. (Inactive) McGee L. (Hip Injury) Murphy J. (Inactive) O'Connor L. (Inactive) Tamen W. (Inactive)

There will not play in Harrogate: Fox B. (Inactive) Marsh A. (Inactive) McCoulsky S. (Inactive) Oxley M. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Tranmere: Bristow E. (Inactive) Dennis K. (Inactive) Joseph J. (Inactive) Turnbull J. (Inactive) Williams J. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Harrogate: Bradbury T. (Injury)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Tranmere won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 23:14. (average 1.8:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Tranmere won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:8. (average 1.9:1.1).

Outrights of English League Two for now

Tranmere: 0.81%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Tranmere	10	2	6	2	13:13	0	12

Last Results with these Odds

Harrogate Town - the odds 4 are the expected chance of winning is 22.91%, but this team recently wins 39% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tranmere Rovers
English League Two
14.03.26	Fleetwood Town - Tranmere Rovers	0:0 ✺
07.03.26	Tranmere Rovers - Oldham Athletic	1:3 ✺
03.03.26	Newport County - Tranmere Rovers	3:1 ✺
28.02.26	Crewe Alexandra - Tranmere Rovers	2:1 ✺
21.02.26	Notts County - Tranmere Rovers	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 TLLLL
- Harrogate Town
English League Two
14.03.26	Harrogate Town - Salford City	0:1 ✺
07.03.26	Milton Keynes Dons - Harrogate Town	4:1 ✺
27.02.26	Harrogate Town - Cheltenham Town	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	Harrogate Town - Bromley	0:0 ✺
17.02.26	Barrow - Harrogate Town	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 LLTTW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
01.01.26	Harrogate Town - Tranmere Rovers	0:2
01.04.25	Harrogate Town - Tranmere Rovers	3:2
14.12.24	Tranmere Rovers - Harrogate Town	2:1
29.12.23	Harrogate Town - Tranmere Rovers	0:2
15.08.23	Tranmere Rovers - Harrogate Town	3:0
31.03.23	Tranmere Rovers - Harrogate Town	1:1
22.10.22	Harrogate Town - Tranmere Rovers	1:1

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