Match Info

Cymru South - Round 14

Date: 14 November 2025, Friday


	Trefelin		Carmarthen Town

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.65	3.55
	1.75	3.88	3.68
	1.74	3.76	3.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↓ (1.82)	3.76 ↑ (3.7)	3.69 ↑ (3.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 10.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Trefelin
51.4%

Draw
24.1%

Carmarthen Town
24.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.9%

24.6%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53%

23.2%

24%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Trefelin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Carmarthen Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Trefelin than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carmarthen Town than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Trefelin - Carmarthen Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
31', 1 - 0, Brock T. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', 2 - 0, Piper R. ⚽,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier and 4).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Trefelin won 1.

Trefelin is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Carmarthen Town is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Trefelin is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Trefelin won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:17. (average 0.9:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Trefelin won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:7. (average 0.8:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Trefelin BGC
Welsh Cymru South
08.11.25	Aberystwyth Town - Trefelin	0:2 ✺
01.11.25	Trefelin - Pontypridd United	2:0 ✺
10.10.25	Cambrian United - Trefelin	0:2 ✺
04.10.25	Trefelin - Afan Lido	0:0 ✺
27.09.25	Ynyshir Albions - Trefelin	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WWWTW
- Carmarthen Town
Welsh Cymru South
08.11.25	Carmarthen Town - Trethomas Bluebirds	1:1 ✺
01.11.25	Ynyshir Albions - Carmarthen Town	0:2 ✺
24.10.25	Carmarthen Town - Afan Lido	1:0 ✺
Welsh FA Cup
18.10.25	Carmarthen Town - Trethomas Bluebirds	5:1 ✺
Welsh Cymru South
10.10.25	Ammanford - Carmarthen Town	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 TWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
29.03.25	Carmarthen Town - Trefelin	1:1
12.10.24	Trefelin - Carmarthen Town	2:1
08.03.24	Trefelin - Carmarthen Town	1:1
28.08.23	Carmarthen Town - Trefelin	6:1
18.04.23	Trefelin - Carmarthen Town	0:3
26.08.22	Carmarthen Town - Trefelin	2:1
04.12.21	Trefelin - Carmarthen Town	0:2

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