Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL 2 - ROUND 24

Date: 11 March 2023, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estádio do Clube Desportivo Trofense (Trofa) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Almeida N. (Por)


	Trofense		Nacional

	1	X	2
	2	3.3	3.4
	1.98	3.25	3.3
	2.08	3.15	3.35
	2.08	3.35	3.3
	2.06	3.57	3.71
	2.05	3.1	3.4
	1.97	3.48	3.58
	2.07	3.35	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↓ (2.27)	3.32 ↑ (3.2)	3.41 ↑ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Trofense
45.2%

Draw
27.8%

Nacional
27%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

39.5%

28%

32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

30.6%

29.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Trofense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Trofense's performance.

Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Nacional might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Trofense than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.9%	15.6%	12.5%

Trofense - Nacional Predictions

Users Predictions: 32 users predict this event. Trofense will win (votes: 23 - 71.9%). Nacional will win (votes: 4 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 15.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Trofense: 56.3% – 87.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

A team from the mid-table and outsider will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3 and 13).

Recent matches Trofense is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Nacional is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Nacional could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph bor both teams are almost equal.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Trofense won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Trofense won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Trofense
Portuguese Liga 2
04.03.23	Moreirense - Trofense	1:0 ✺
24.02.23	Trofense - Penafiel	1:2 ✺
18.02.23	Trofense - Oliveirense	2:1 ✺
11.02.23	Vilafranquense - Trofense	0:1 ✺
05.02.23	Trofense - Leixões	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 LLWWL
- Atletico Nacional
Portuguese Liga 2
05.03.23	Nacional - Covilhã	2:0 ✺
26.02.23	BSAD - Nacional	0:1 ✺
19.02.23	Nacional - Leixões	1:2 ✺
13.02.23	Mafra - Nacional	3:3 ✺
Taça de Portugal
09.02.23	Casa Pia - Nacional	2:5 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.6 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
18.09.22	Nacional - Trofense	0:1
27.02.22	Nacional - Trofense	1:1
04.10.21	Trofense - Nacional	0:3

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atletico Nacional
Liga Portugal
01.11.26	Arouca - Nacional	✺

Trofense - Nacional