Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL 2 - ROUND 17

Date: 15 January 2024, Monday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Mafra (Mafra)

Referee: Ferreira V. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV+


	Mafra		Nacional

	1	X	2
	2.38	3.5	2.75
	2.35	3.2	2.65	Watch
	2.35	3.5	2.8	Watch
	2.46	3.55	2.9
	2.43	3.55	2.94
	2.25	3.4	2.6
	2.38	3.42	2.74	Watch
	2.34	3.35	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↑ (2.26)	3.43 ↑ (3.33)	2.76 ↑ (2.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mafra
39.3%

Draw
27.1%

Nacional
33.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.3%

26.7%

33.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.9%

25.7%

32.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Mafra have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mafra than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
41.2%	29.4%	29.4%

Mafra - Nacional Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Mafra will win (votes: 7 - 41.2%). Nacional will win (votes: 5 - 29.4%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 29.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mafra: 17.8% – 64.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Olafsson E. (G) 19. Diao O. 5. Pedro Barcelos 4. Goulart J. 27. Nibe A. 80. Balburdia M. 6. Bravo P. 20. Miguel Sousa 15. Guilherme (C) 7. Dju M. 8. Gabriel L.	37. Lucas Franca (G) 2. Aurelio J. (C) 4. Paulo Vitor 40. Ulisses 5. Jose Gomes 8. Danilovic V. 28. Carlos Daniel 99. Dudu 10. Esteves L. 77. Gustavo 9. Ramirez J.
Substitutes
1. Andre Paulo (G) 2. Beni D. 3. Chriso 17. de Sousa Dias Pedro Lopes A. F. 22. Gabriel Passos 70. Lind J. 77. Matos R. 11. Moreno J. 44. Texel P.	71. Diga 1. Encarnacao R. (G) 33. Goncalves C. 20. Jota Garces 7. Macedo R. 21. Marakis S. 3. Pola J. 55. Sousa A.
Coaches
Silas	Margarido T.

Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 7 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal (Promotion: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Mafra won 2.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Nacional could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Mafra won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 10-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Mafra won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Mafra
Portuguese Liga 2
06.01.24	Santa Clara - Mafra	0:1 ✺
31.12.23	Mafra - AVS	0:2 ✺
17.12.23	Oliveirense - Mafra	1:3 ✺
10.12.23	Mafra - Académico de Viseu	1:1 ✺
04.12.23	Feirense - Mafra	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WLWTL
- Atletico Nacional
Taça de Portugal
11.01.24	Santa Clara - Nacional	2:1 penalties ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
06.01.24	Nacional - Tondela	1:1 ✺
30.12.23	Porto B - Nacional	2:3 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
22.12.23	Nacional - Braga	1:3 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
16.12.23	Nacional - Belenenses	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
13.02.23	Mafra - Nacional	3:3
21.08.22	Nacional - Mafra	0:2
13.03.22	Mafra - Nacional	3:2
24.10.21	Nacional - Mafra	1:1
08.02.20	Mafra - Nacional	1:1
25.08.19	Nacional - Mafra	0:0

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