Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL 2 - ROUND 22

Date: 24 February 2023, Friday

Location: Estádio do Clube Desportivo Trofense (Trofa)

Referee: Bessa J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Trofense		Penafiel

	1	X	2
	2.7	2.88	2.55	Watch
	2.65	2.85	2.6
	2.75	2.95	2.5
	2.87	3.1	2.77
	2.7	2.88	2.55
	2.72	3.13	2.59
	2.65	2.9	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.72 ↓ (3.23)	2.96 ↑ (2.9)	2.59 ↑ (2.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Trofense
33.7%

Draw
31%

Penafiel
35.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28%

31.2%

40.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.1%

30%

39.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Trofense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Trofense's performance.

Penafiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Penafiel might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Trofense than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.2%	54.5%	27.3%

Trofense - Penafiel Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Trofense will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Penafiel will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 54.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Super game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3 and 10).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Trofense won 1.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Penafiel will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Trofense won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 6-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Trofense won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Trofense
Portuguese Liga 2
18.02.23	Trofense - Oliveirense	2:1 ✺
11.02.23	Vilafranquense - Trofense	0:1 ✺
05.02.23	Trofense - Leixões	0:1 ✺
30.01.23	BSAD - Trofense	1:1 ✺
21.01.23	Mafra - Trofense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 WWLTL
- FC Penafiel
Portuguese Liga 2
18.02.23	Penafiel - Covilhã	1:1 ✺
13.02.23	BSAD - Penafiel	2:2 ✺
05.02.23	Penafiel - Mafra	1:0 ✺
29.01.23	Leixões - Penafiel	2:1 ✺
22.01.23	Estrela da Amadora - Penafiel	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 TTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
04.09.22	Penafiel - Trofense	3:0
07.02.22	Penafiel - Trofense	1:0
30.08.21	Trofense - Penafiel	2:1
Taça de Portugal
30.09.18	Trofense - Penafiel	2:3
Portuguese Liga 2
29.01.14	Penafiel - Trofense	1:1
14.09.13	Trofense - Penafiel	0:0
02.09.12	Penafiel - Trofense	1:1

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