Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: ONEOK Field (Tulsa, OK)

Referee: Osmanovic E. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Tulsa		Sacramento Republic

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.65	3.00	2.40
	2.95	3.00	2.23
	3.08	3.15	2.55
	2.8	3.12	2.55	Watch
	3.00	2.95	2.50
	2.86	3.22	2.45	Watch
	2.70	3.05	2.49
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.86 ↑ (2.81)	3.07 ↓ (3.24)	2.45 ↑ (2.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tulsa
32.3%

Draw
30.1%

Sacramento Republic
37.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33%

28.6%

38.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.7%

28.3%

38.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tulsa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Sacramento Republic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tulsa than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sacramento Republic than the current prediction. (+1%)

Tulsa - Sacramento Republic Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
28. Jacomen D. (G) 98. Ian 91. Cissoko A. (C) 15. Batista L. 12. Stauffer L. 66. Wilson W. 13. Kocevski J. 6. Diallo B. 2. Damm O. 9. Ordonez A. 14. Dorsey L.	1. Vitiello D. (G) 6. Kleemann F. 5. Timmer J. 4. Desmond L. (C) 3. Spaulding R. 27. Crisostomo D. 71. Edwards K. 19. Midence A. 20. Willey B. 10. Rodriguez A. 11. Ajago F.
Substitutes
23. Eisner W. 10. Elmedkhar K. 22. Lukic S. 4. Pierre D. 44. Sangwa J. 1. Tambakis A. (G) 8. Webber J.	22. Benitez M. 24. Casas J. 15. Essel A. 2. Gurr J. 26. Jennings C. 31. Randolph J. (G) 8. Rodriguez M. 16. Wolff T.
Coaches
Spencer L.	Collins N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Ordonez A. (Penalty Awarded),
31', Spaulding R. 🟨,
32', Rodriguez A. 🟨,
45+1', Ian 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Rodriguez A. ↓, Rodriguez M. ↑,
46', Midence A. ↓, Gurr J. ↑,
54', Spaulding R. ↓, Benitez M. ↑,
60', Ian ↓, Sangwa J. ↑,
60', Wilson W. ↓, Elmedkhar K. ↑,
60', Diallo B. ↓, Webber J. ↑,
69', Crisostomo D. ↓, Casas J. ↑,
78', Ajago F. ↓, Jennings C. ↑,
83', Cissoko A. ↓, Pierre D. ↑,
86', Ordonez A. ↓, Eisner W. ↑,
89', 1 - 1, Rodriguez M. ⚽,
90+4', Dorsey L. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tulsa won 3.

Tulsa has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Sacramento Republic is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Sacramento Republic may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Tulsa has faced a series of away games on the road.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 18 head-to-head meetings, Tulsa has recorded 3 wins, 5 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal aggregate of 16:36 (averaging 0.9:2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Tulsa against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, with 8:17 goals (averaging 0.9:1.9 per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Tulsa - the odds 2.81 are the expected chance of winning is 33.02%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Sacramento Republic - the odds 2.42 are the expected chance of winning is 38.34%, but this team recently wins 80% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Tulsa
USL Championship
30.09.26	Tulsa - New Mexico United	1:0 ✺
25.09.26	El Paso Locomotive - Tulsa	1:1 ✺
19.09.26	Brooklyn - Tulsa	2:2 ✺
12.09.26	Phoenix Rising - Tulsa	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	San Antonio - Tulsa	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WTTLT
- Sacramento Republic FC
USL Championship
30.09.26	Sacramento Republic - Las Vegas Lights	3:2 ✺
26.09.26	New Mexico United - Sacramento Republic	2:3 ✺
20.09.26	Sacramento Republic - San Antonio	0:0 ✺
12.09.26	Sacramento Republic - Detroit City	1:0 ✺
05.09.26	Orange County SC - Sacramento Republic	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WWTWT

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
05.08.26	Tulsa - Sacramento Republic	1:0
07.03.26	Sacramento Republic - Tulsa	2:0
07.06.25	Sacramento Republic - Tulsa	0:1
28.03.25	Tulsa - Sacramento Republic	1:0
22.06.24	Tulsa - Sacramento Republic	0:0
13.04.24	Sacramento Republic - Tulsa	1:1
29.04.23	Tulsa - Sacramento Republic	1:1

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