Match Info

UEFA Nations League - League A - Round 2

Date: 28 September 2026, Monday

Location: Bursa Atatürk Stadyumu (Bursa)

Referee: Oliver M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Afghanistan	Meraj Sport, Solh Sports 1
Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 2, New World Sport App, SuperSport Maximo 360
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports 1, Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	ATV 1, DAZN 2, DAZN
Brazil	Disney+, Globoplay, SporTV
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, TLN, VIVA
Croatia	MAXtv To Go, SportKlub 1
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Sport 2
Denmark	TV2 Play
Estonia	Go3 Extra Sports
Europe	UEFA TV
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	L'Equipe, L'Equipe Live Foot
Georgia	Silk Sport 3
Germany	DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 2
Iceland	Viaplay
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	RAI 1, RaiPlay
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Qazsport
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Lithuania	Go3 Extra Sports
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Mongolia	Premier Sports 1
Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport 4
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Polsat Sport 2
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Slovenia	SportKlub 3
South-america	ViX Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV Now
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 2
Turkey	ATV, Digiturk, Exxen, TV 8
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Turkey		Italy

	1	X	2
	2.9	3.4	2.35
	2.55	3.40	2.50
	2.82	3.4	2.45
	2.97	3.52	2.45
	2.97	3.53	2.43	Watch
	2.95	3.4	2.4
	2.83	3.48	2.5	Watch
	2.8	3.35	2.39
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.85 ↑ (2.85)	3.44 ↑ (3.33)	2.43 ↑ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Turkey
33.3%

Draw
27.6%

Italy
39%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.3%

27.7%

40%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Turkey has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Italy has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	31.4%	35.3%

Turkey - Italy Predictions

Users Predictions: 51 users predict this event. Turkey will win (votes: 17 - 33.3%). Italy will win (votes: 18 - 35.3%). It will Tie (votes: 16 - 31.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Italy: 22.2% – 48.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Italy (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Turkey (2.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Italy (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Italy (1.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Turkey (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Italy (votes: 4 - 50%). Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bayindir A. (G) Celta Vigo 2. Celik Z. Juventus 3. Demiral M. (C) Al Ahli SC 15. Kabak O. Hoffenheim 18. Aydin O. Fenerbahce 6. Kokcu O. Besiktas 5. Ozcan S. Besiktas 13. Elmali E. Galatasaray 10. Guler A. Real Madrid 21. Yilmaz B. Galatasaray 11. Uzun C. Eintracht Frankfurt	1. Donnarumma G. (C) Manchester City 2. Kayode M. Brentford 19. Scalvini G. Atalanta 21. Bastoni A. Inter 3. Ruggeri M. Aston Villa 16. Frattesi D. Lazio 8. Tonali S. Tottenham 6. Fagioli N. Fiorentina 10. Raspadori G. Atalanta 7. Esposito F. Inter 23. Esposito Se. Sassuolo
Substitutes
4. Akaydin S. Trabzonspor 19. Akgun Y. Galatasaray 7. Akturkoglu K. Fenerbahce 14. Bardakci A. Galatasaray 22. Eskihellac M. Trabzonspor 9. Gul D. Galatasaray 20. Kadioglu F. Brighton 17. Kahveci I. Fenerbahce 23. Kocuk O. (G) Samsunspor 12. Sengezer M. (G) Basaksehir 8. Tiknaz D. E. Braga 16. Yuksek I. Fenerbahce	5. Calafiori R. Arsenal 17. Cambiaghi N. Bologna 12. Carnesecchi M. (G) Atalanta 22. Di Lorenzo G. Napoli 15. Doumbia I. Sporting CP 20. Ghilardi D. AS Roma 9. Kean M. Como 13. Mandragora R. Torino 4. Romano A. Cagliari 11. Scamacca G. Atalanta 18. Vergara A. Napoli 14. Vicario G. (G) Juventus
Coaches
Montella V.	Mancini R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
9', 0 - 1, Bastoni A. ⚽,
22', 0 - 2, Frattesi D. ⚽,
27', 0 - 3, Kayode M. ⚽, Esposito F. (A),
38', Uzun C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Raspadori G. ↓, Cambiaghi N. ↑,
46', Demiral M. ↓, Bardakci A. ↑,
46', Uzun C. ↓, Akturkoglu K. ↑,
46', Kokcu O. ↓, Yuksek I. ↑,
47', 1 - 3, Yilmaz B. ⚽, Aydin O. (A),
50', 1 - 4, Esposito F. ⚽,
54', Yilmaz B. 🟨,
63', Esposito Se. ↓, Doumbia I. ↑,
72', Kabak O. 🟨,
75', Esposito F. ↓, Scamacca G. ↑,
76', Fagioli N. ↓, Romano A. ↑,
76', Ozcan S. ↓, Tiknaz D. E. ↑,
80', Yilmaz B. ↓, Gul D. ↑,
82', Frattesi D. ↓, Di Lorenzo G. ↑,

Preview

Turkey is ranked FIFA: 27., and Italy is ranked FIFA: 15..

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

Confirmed absences for Turkey: Calhanoglu H. (Muscle Injury) Muldur M. (Knee Injury) Yildiz K. (Foot Injury).

Confirmed absences for Italy: Cambiaso A. (Ankle Injury) Chiesa F. (Back Injury) Cristante B. (Injury) Dimarco F. (Knee Injury) Locatelli M. (Knee Injury) Meret A. (Muscle Injury) Spinazzola L. (Muscle Injury).

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Turkey has recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 2:6 (averaging 0.7:2 goals per game).

Outrights of UEFA Nations League for now

Italy: 3.85%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Turkey
UEFA Nations League
25.09.26	Turkey - France	0:1 ✺
FIFA World Cup
25.06.26	Turkey - USA	3:2 ✺
19.06.26	Turkey - Paraguay	0:1 ✺
14.06.26	Australia - Turkey	2:0 ✺
Friendly
06.06.26	Venezuela - Turkey	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LWLLW
- Italy
UEFA Nations League
25.09.26	Italy - Belgium	0:2 ✺
Friendly
07.06.26	Greece - Italy	0:1 ✺
03.06.26	Luxembourg - Italy	0:1 ✺
FIFA World Cup
31.03.26	Bosnia and Herzegovina - Italy	2:1 penalties ✺
26.03.26	Italy - Northern Ireland	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Friendly
04.06.24	Italy - Turkey	0:0
29.03.22	Turkey - Italy	2:3
UEFA Euro
11.06.21	Turkey - Italy	0:3

Turkey - Italy: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide