Match Info

Premier League - Round 13

Date: 14 December 2025, Sunday


	Sofapaka		Tusker

	1	X	2
	3.15	2.35	2.72
	3.41	2.47	2.46
	3.39	2.5	2.52	Watch
	3.4	2.3	2.5
	3.69	2.4	2.42
	3.4	2.45	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.41 ↑ (2.63)	2.41 ↓ (2.82)	2.51 ↓ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sofapaka
26.5%

Draw
37.5%

Tusker
36%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.1%

31.8%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.8%

34.3%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sofapaka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sofapaka's form might have worsened.

Tusker has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sofapaka than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sofapaka, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tusker than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Sofapaka - Tusker Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Tusker (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
70', 0 - 1, ⚽,
78', 0 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Super League and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sofapaka won 1.

Sofapaka has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Tusker's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Sofapaka may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sofapaka won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 27:37. (average 1.4:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Sofapaka won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 18:22. (average 1.8:2.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sofapaka FC
Kenyan Premier League
07.12.25	Kenya CB - Sofapaka	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Sofapaka - APS Bomet	0:0 ✺
24.11.25	Sofapaka - Ulinzi Stars	1:3 ✺
15.11.25	Bandari - Sofapaka	2:0 ✺
10.11.25	Sofapaka - Posta Rangers	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LTLLW
- Tusker
Kenyan Premier League
05.12.25	Tusker - Ulinzi Stars	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Mara Sugar - Tusker	0:1 ✺
22.11.25	Gor Mahia - Tusker	1:0 ✺
16.11.25	Tusker - Police FC	1:2 ✺
07.11.25	Bidco United - Tusker	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Kenyan Premier League
18.05.25	Sofapaka - Tusker	7:1
24.08.24	Tusker - Sofapaka	1:0
14.01.24	Tusker - Sofapaka	3:1
28.10.23	Sofapaka - Tusker	0:1
09.04.23	Tusker - Sofapaka	2:0
22.01.23	Sofapaka - Tusker	0:1
25.02.22	Sofapaka - Tusker	0:2

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