Match Info

Premier League - Round 12

Date: 5 December 2025, Friday


	Tusker		Ulinzi Stars

	1	X	2
	2.68	2.58	2.88
	2.75	2.68	3.23
	2.76	2.43	3.14	Watch
	2.63	2.5	2.9
	2.61	2.53	2.99
	2.8	2.25	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.71 ↑ (2.12)	2.5 ↓ (2.9)	3.07 ↓ (3.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tusker
33.7%

Draw
36.5%

Ulinzi Stars
29.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.5%

31%

26.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.9%

32.7%

25.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tusker has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tusker's form might have worsened.

Ulinzi Stars has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tusker than the current prediction. (+11.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tusker, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ulinzi Stars than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Tusker - Ulinzi Stars Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
32', 1 - 0, Oalo D. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 6 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tusker won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Recently, Tusker has had a series of away games.

Tusker might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Tusker won 9 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 23:12. (average 1.2:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Tusker won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:6. (average 1.2:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tusker
Kenyan Premier League
29.11.25	Mara Sugar - Tusker	0:1 ✺
22.11.25	Gor Mahia - Tusker	1:0 ✺
16.11.25	Tusker - Police FC	1:2 ✺
07.11.25	Bidco United - Tusker	0:1 ✺
02.11.25	Kakamega Homeboyz - Tusker	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WLLWT
- Ulinzi Stars
Kenyan Premier League
30.11.25	Ulinzi Stars - Bandari	1:1 ✺
24.11.25	Sofapaka - Ulinzi Stars	1:3 ✺
19.11.25	APS Bomet - Ulinzi Stars	0:1 ✺
09.11.25	Ulinzi Stars - Shabana	0:1 ✺
02.11.25	Gor Mahia - Ulinzi Stars	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.5 TWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Kenyan Premier League
25.01.25	Ulinzi Stars - Tusker	0:1
23.10.24	Tusker - Ulinzi Stars	1:1
21.04.24	Ulinzi Stars - Tusker	0:1
01.11.23	Tusker - Ulinzi Stars	0:1
Kenyan FKF Cup
20.05.23	Tusker - Ulinzi Stars	1:0
Kenyan Premier League
16.03.23	Ulinzi Stars - Tusker	2:2
25.01.23	Tusker - Ulinzi Stars	0:0

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