Match Info

Liga MX - Clausura - Round 16

Date: 21 April 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Universitario (Mexico City)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	TUDN, VIX, ViX Premium
South-america	ViX Latin America
Usa	TUDN


	UNAM		Juárez

	1	X	2
	1.61	4.33	5	Watch
	1.68	4.15	4.45
	1.69	4.25	4.99
	1.72	4.25	4.26	Watch
	1.57	3.8	4.4
	1.62	4.31	5.24	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (1.81)	4.18 ↑ (3.5)	4.72 ↑ (3.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

UNAM
57.4%

Draw
22.6%

Juárez
20%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.7%

25.7%

24.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.5%

24.8%

23.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

UNAM has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in UNAM's performance.

Juárez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for UNAM than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with UNAM that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Juárez than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
95.5%	0%	4.5%

UNAM - Juárez Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. UNAM (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - UNAM (2.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: UNAM will win (21 of 22 users predict this - 95.45%).
Confidence interval (95%): 86.74% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. UNAM (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Lara P. (G) 7. Lopez R. 6. Nathan Silva (C) 5. Duarte R. 77. Angulo A. 22. Medina A. 45. Vite P. 33. Carrillo J. 23. Juninho 9. Martinez G. 31. Morales R.	1. Jurado S. (C) 33. Nevarez Pulgarin F. J. 2. Murillo J. 26. Manriquez J. 4. Mayorga A. 5. Garcia D. 6. Monchu 20. Torres Ramirez I. J. M. 237. Lopez E. 11. Puma 29. Ayon E.
Substitutes
21. Antuna U. 215. Azuaje A. 2. Bennevendo P. 14. Garza C. 24. Leone T. 181. Paul M. (G) 193. Ramirez D. 26. Rico A. 19. Rivas J. 20. Trigos S.	22. Aquino J. 203. Carmona L. A. 17. Dupuy L. 19. Estupinan O. 13. Fulgencio R. 8. Guilherme Castilho 9. Madson 18. Martinez Yepez H. E. 21. Ricardinho 27. Ruiz G. (G)
Coaches
Juarez E.	Caixinha P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
9', Ayon E. 🟨,
35', 0 - 1, Nevarez Pulgarin F. J. ⚽, Lopez E. (A),
45+1', 0 - 2, Torres Ramirez I. J. M. ⚽, Puma (A),
2nd Half (4 - 0)
46', Juninho ↓, Rico A. ↑,
55', Lopez E. 🟥,
57', Medina A. ↓, Antuna U. ↑,
60', Torres Ramirez I. J. M. ↓, Guilherme Castilho ↑,
60', Puma ↓, Aquino J. ↑,
61', Nathan Silva 🟨,
66', 1 - 2, Martinez G. (Penalty Awarded),
66', Ayon E. ↓, Dupuy L. ↑,
70', 2 - 2, Martinez G. ⚽, Carrillo J. (A),
77', Carrillo J. 🟨,
78', Garcia D. ↓, Martinez Yepez H. E. ↑,
82', Lopez R. ↓, Leone T. ↑,
82', Guilherme Castilho 🟨,
86', 3 - 2, Morales R. ⚽, Antuna U. (A),
88', Nevarez Pulgarin F. J. 🟨,
90+4', Carrillo J. ↓, Ramirez D. ↑,
90+7', Murillo J. 🟨,
90+8', 4 - 2, Morales R. ⚽,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 12).

UNAM is Qualified for Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, UNAM won 3.

UNAM is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Juárez has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Juárez may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, UNAM is a strong favorite.

There will not play in UNAM: Carrasquilla A. (Yellow Cards) Macias J. (Knee Injury) Navas K. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Juárez: Romero B. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Juárez: Ricardinho (Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, UNAM won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 23:23. (average 1.4:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, UNAM won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:3. (average 1.3:0.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	UNAM Pumas	10	3	3	4	14:16	-2	12
18	Juarez	11	1	1	9	8:26	-18	4

Last Results with these Odds

Juárez - the odds 3.65 are the expected chance of winning is 24.6%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UNAM Pumas
Mexican Liga MX
17.04.26	Atlético San Luis - UNAM	0:2 ✺
12.04.26	UNAM - Mazatlan	3:1 ✺
05.04.26	Chivas Guadalajara - UNAM	2:2 ✺
21.03.26	UNAM - Club América	1:0 ✺
14.03.26	UNAM - Cruz Azul	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.6 WWTWT
- FC Juárez
Mexican Liga MX
18.04.26	Club León - Juárez	3:1 ✺
10.04.26	Juárez - Tijuana	1:2 ✺
07.04.26	Querétaro - Juárez	1:1 ✺
03.04.26	Puebla - Juárez	1:1 ✺
22.03.26	Juárez - Tigres UANL	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
23.09.25	Juárez - UNAM	3:1
27.04.25	Juárez - UNAM	1:2 penalties
12.04.25	UNAM - Juárez	0:0
17.07.24	Juárez - UNAM	1:2
14.01.24	UNAM - Juárez	1:0
22.08.23	Juárez - UNAM	4:1
08.01.23	UNAM - Juárez	2:1

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