Match Info

Premier League - Round 4

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday


	Ulinzi Stars		Mara Sugar

	1	X	2
	1.99	2.57	4.7
	2.28	2.24	4.95	Watch
	2.53	2.44	3.41
	1.9	2.9	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↓ (2.19)	2.54 ↓ (2.95)	4.27 ↑ (3.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ulinzi Stars
42.2%

Draw
36.2%

Mara Sugar
21.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.6%

30.9%

27.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ulinzi Stars has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Mara Sugar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mara Sugar might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Ulinzi Stars - Mara Sugar Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, ⚽,
33', 1 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
71', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

Mara Sugar may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Ulinzi Stars could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Ulinzi Stars won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Ulinzi Stars won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ulinzi Stars
Kenyan Premier League
01.10.25	Police FC - Ulinzi Stars	0:0 ✺
24.09.25	Ulinzi Stars - Kariobangi Sharks	0:0 ✺
21.09.25	Muranga Seal - Ulinzi Stars	0:1 ✺
15.06.25	Ulinzi Stars - Gor Mahia	2:3 ✺
17.05.25	Mathare United - Ulinzi Stars	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 TTWLL
- Mara Sugar FC
Kenyan Premier League
01.10.25	Mara Sugar - Nairobi United	0:1 ✺
27.09.25	Mara Sugar - Kakamega Homeboyz	0:0 ✺
Kenyan FKF Cup
29.06.25	Muranga Seal - Mara Sugar	1:0 ✺
Kenyan Premier League
15.06.25	Mara Sugar - Muranga Seal	0:0 ✺
Kenyan FKF Cup
01.06.25	Nairobi United - Mara Sugar	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Kenyan Premier League
04.05.25	Mara Sugar - Ulinzi Stars	1:1
12.01.25	Ulinzi Stars - Mara Sugar	1:0

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