Match Info

3. Liga - Round 22

Date: 1 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Donaustadion (Ulm)

Referee: Hilsberg S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Germany	Magenta Sport
World	Onefootball


	Ulm 1846		Duisburg

	1	X	2
	3	3.2	2.1	Watch
	3.4	3.7	1.98
	3.15	3.35	2.15	Watch
	3.3	3.41	2.23
	3.18	3.42	2.16	Watch
	3	3.1	2.15
	3.05	3.36	2.26	Watch
	3.14	3.33	2.16
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.15 ↑ (3.05)	3.36 ↓ (3.67)	2.15 ↑ (2.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ulm 1846
29.4%

Draw
27.6%

Duisburg
43.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.5%

25.3%

44.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.9%

24.8%

45.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ulm 1846 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Duisburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ulm 1846 than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Duisburg than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.7%	6.7%	86.7%

Ulm 1846 - Duisburg Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Ulm (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Duisburg (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Ulm (2.43) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Duisburg will win (13 of 15 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.47% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Ulm (votes: 4 - 50%). Duisburg (votes: 4 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Schmitt M. (G) 19. Meier J. 18. Bazzoli L. 21. Seegert M. 32. Kolle N. 20. Pepic M. 14. Dressel D. 11. Chessa D. 23. Brandt M. 43. Dajaku L. 26. El-Zein A.	1. Braune M. (G) 29. Bitter J. 5. Fleckstein T. 42. Hahn A. 14. Noss C. 6. Bulic R. 8. Casar A. 38. Sadlek G. E. 33. Tugbenyo J. 37. Sussek P. 45. Lobinger L.
Substitutes
7. Aksakal E. 25. Loder E. 45. Mamba S. 27. Mazagg L. 39. Ortag C. (G) 9. Roser L. 30. Vater F. 3. Vukancic N. 8. Westermeier B.	25. Borkowski D. 20. Jessen N. 26. Kruger F. 18. Meuer S. 19. Muller L. 24. Paris J. (G) 40. Schlicke B. 23. Symalla J. 22. Topken T.
Coaches
Dotchev P.	Hirsch D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
26', Bulic R. 🟨,
27', 1 - 0, El-Zein A. ⚽, Dajaku L. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Tugbenyo J. ↓, Symalla J. ↑,
46', Bulic R. ↓, Muller L. ↑,
51', Noss C. 🟨,
63', Bazzoli L. 🟨,
65', Sussek P. ↓, Borkowski D. ↑,
65', Noss C. ↓, Kruger F. ↑,
67', Hahn A. 🟨,
72', Kolle N. 🟨,
76', Sadlek G. E. ↓, Topken T. ↑,
78', El-Zein A. ↓, Roser L. ↑,
78', Dajaku L. ↓, Loder E. ↑,
78', Kolle N. ↓, Mazagg L. ↑,
85', Brandt M. ↓, Vukancic N. ↑,
90+1', Meier J. 🟨,
90+2', Chessa D. ↓, Vater F. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ 2. Bundesliga).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Duisburg may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Duisburg could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Ulm won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:5. (average 1.3:1.7).

Including home match between the teams, Ulm won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Duisburg	8	7	0	1	22:9	13	21

Last Results with these Odds

Ulm 1846 - the odds 3.05 are the expected chance of winning is 30.46%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ulm 1846
German 3 Bundesliga
24.01.26	Erzgebirge Aue - Ulm 1846	0:3 ✺
17.01.26	Ulm 1846 - Wehen Wiesbaden	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
05.01.26	Ulm 1846 - Bonner	2:1 ✺
German 3 Bundesliga
20.12.25	Rot-Weiß Essen - Ulm 1846	3:2 ✺
12.12.25	Ulm 1846 - Osnabrück	3:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WLWLL
- MSV Duisburg
German 3 Bundesliga
24.01.26	Duisburg - Jahn Regensburg	2:0 ✺
18.01.26	VfB Stuttgart II - Duisburg	0:4 ✺
Club Friendly
09.01.26	Hannover - Duisburg	2:0 ✺
German 3 Bundesliga
21.12.25	Viktoria Köln - Duisburg	0:0 ✺
13.12.25	Duisburg - Erzgebirge Aue	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WWLTT

Latest Head to Head

German 3 Bundesliga
23.08.25	Duisburg - Ulm 1846	2:1
27.01.24	Ulm 1846 - Duisburg	2:2
25.08.23	Duisburg - Ulm 1846	1:1

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