Match Info

3. Liga - Round 18

Date: 13 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Schauinsland-Reisen-Arena (Duisburg)

Referee: Wagner F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub 6
Germany	Magenta Sport, MDR Fernsehen
Slovenia	SportKlub 2
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
World	Onefootball


	Duisburg		Erzgebirge Aue

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.9	4.33	Watch
	1.7	3.9	4.25
	1.72	4.16	4.43
	1.65	4.17	4.45	Watch
	1.67	3.8	4
	1.64	3.74	4.52	Watch
	1.71	4	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (1.76)	3.95 ↑ (3.93)	4.28 ↑ (3.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Duisburg
55%

Draw
23.4%

Erzgebirge Aue
21.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.7%

23.6%

23.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.5%

23.2%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Duisburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Erzgebirge Aue has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Duisburg than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Erzgebirge Aue than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	10%	0%

Duisburg - Erzgebirge Aue Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Duisburg (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Duisburg (1.84) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Duisburg will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Duisburg (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Braune M. (G) 29. Bitter J. 5. Fleckstein T. 42. Hahn A. 27. Coskun C. 6. Bulic R. 14. Noss C. 37. Sussek P. 10. Viet C. 11. Dittgen M. 26. Kruger F.	22. Lord L. (G) 17. Fallmann P. 16. Malone R. 25. Zobel T. 30. Seiffert M. 11. Uhlmann E. 13. Majetschak E. 8. Clausen M. 34. Stefaniak M. 14. Tashchy B. 24. Ehlers J.
Substitutes
17. Gockan M. 20. Jessen N. 18. Meuer S. 19. Muller L. 24. Paris J. (G) 40. Schlicke B. 22. Topken T. 33. Tugbenyo J. 30. Visser A.	23. Barylla A. 29. Collins J. 20. Fabisch J. 10. Gunther-Schmidt J. 39. Schmid M. 37. Seidel P. 5. Simnica L. 36. Uhlig M. (G) 7. Weinhauer E.
Coaches
Hirsch D.	Hartel J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
8', Coskun C. 🟨,
21', Bulic R. 🟨,
39', Ehlers J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Dittgen M. ↓, Meuer S. ↑,
61', Kruger F. ↓, Topken T. ↑,
61', Coskun C. ↓, Gockan M. ↑,
68', Clausen M. ↓, Schmid M. ↑,
76', Viet C. ↓, Tugbenyo J. ↑,
80', Tashchy B. ↓, Gunther-Schmidt J. ↑,
81', Noss C. ↓, Visser A. ↑,
84', Stefaniak M. 🟨,
88', Uhlmann E. ↓, Simnica L. ↑,
88', Seiffert M. ↓, Collins J. ↑,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ 2. Bundesliga and 17 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Duisburg won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Aue may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Duisburg is the team to beat.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Duisburg won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 17:7. (average 1.5:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Duisburg won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 11:5. (average 1.8:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- MSV Duisburg
German 3 Bundesliga
06.12.25	Energie Cottbus - Duisburg	3:2 ✺
29.11.25	Duisburg - Alemannia Aachen	3:1 ✺
21.11.25	Hoffenheim II - Duisburg	4:1 ✺
07.11.25	Duisburg - Waldhof Mannheim	2:1 ✺
01.11.25	Osnabrück - Duisburg	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LWLWT
- Erzgebirge Aue
German 3 Bundesliga
07.12.25	Erzgebirge Aue - Ingolstadt	2:2 ✺
28.11.25	Wehen Wiesbaden - Erzgebirge Aue	3:1 ✺
23.11.25	Erzgebirge Aue - VfB Stuttgart II	0:0 ✺
08.11.25	Verl - Erzgebirge Aue	1:1 ✺
01.11.25	Erzgebirge Aue - Jahn Regensburg	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 TLTTW

Latest Head to Head

German 3 Bundesliga
12.05.24	Duisburg - Erzgebirge Aue	2:2
09.12.23	Erzgebirge Aue - Duisburg	1:1
05.05.23	Duisburg - Erzgebirge Aue	3:0
08.11.22	Erzgebirge Aue - Duisburg	0:2
German 2 Bundesliga
24.02.19	Erzgebirge Aue - Duisburg	0:0
23.09.18	Duisburg - Erzgebirge Aue	1:2
22.04.18	Erzgebirge Aue - Duisburg	1:3

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