Match Info

3. Liga - Round 29

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Donaustadion (Ulm)

Referee: Oldhafer K. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Germany	Magenta Sport
Slovakia	Arena sport 2
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
World	Onefootball


	Ulm 1846		Ingolstadt

	1	X	2
	2.38	3.5	2.63	Watch
	2.4	3.55	2.62
	2.47	3.65	2.74
	2.38	3.64	2.67	Watch
	2.38	3.3	2.5
	2.42	3.56	2.67	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.41 ↓ (2.63)	3.53 ↓ (3.61)	2.64 ↑ (2.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ulm 1846
38.6%

Draw
26.3%

Ingolstadt
35.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.3%

25.7%

39%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.5%

24.9%

37.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ulm 1846 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Ingolstadt has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ulm 1846 than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ingolstadt than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	14.3%	71.4%

Ulm 1846 - Ingolstadt Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Ulm will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Ingolstadt will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Schmitt M. (G) 19. Meier J. 18. Bazzoli L. 21. Seegert M. 27. Mazagg L. 23. Brandt M. 20. Pepic M. 26. El-Zein A. 43. Dajaku L. 32. Kolle N. 9. Roser L. (C)	25. Eisele K. (G) 34. Frode L. (C) 32. Lorenz S. 23. Maljojoki J. 24. Christensen G. 17. Besuschkow M. 5. Gul E. 19. Rosenlocher L. 22. Costly M. 29. Kugel J. 10. Kaygin D.
Substitutes
7. Aksakal E. 49. Becker A. 14. Dressel D. 25. Loder E. 45. Mamba S. 36. Mrden M. 39. Ortag C. (G) 3. Vukancic N. 8. Westermeier B.	11. Christensen F. 20. Deichmann Y. 30. Drakulic O. 41. Hengmith T. 2. Hoppe M. 44. Kehrer E. 47. Klein D. (G) 39. Ozturk B.
Coaches
Dotchev P.	Wittmann S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
21', Seegert M. 🟨,
27', 0 - 1, Kugel J. ⚽, Costly M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
65', Brandt M. 🟨,
66', Kugel J. ↓, Drakulic O. ↑,
68', 0 - 2, Maljojoki J. ⚽,
75', 0 - 3, Costly M. ⚽,
78', Seegert M. ↓, Becker A. ↑,
78', El-Zein A. ↓, Mamba S. ↑,
79', Christensen G. ↓, Deichmann Y. ↑,
79', Kaygin D. ↓, Kehrer E. ↑,
82', 1 - 3, Dajaku L. ⚽,
83', 🟨,
86', Meier J. ↓, Loder E. ↑,
86', Pepic M. ↓, Aksakal E. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 12).

Recent form of Ulm has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Ingolstadt has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Ingolstadt may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Ulm won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:9. (average 0.5:2.3).

Including home match between the teams, Ulm won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Ingolstadt	7	2	2	3	7:11	-4	8

Last Results with these Odds

Ulm 1846 - the odds 2.63 are the expected chance of winning is 35.29%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Ingolstadt - the odds 2.38 are the expected chance of winning is 39%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ulm 1846
German 3 Bundesliga
07.03.26	Schweinfurt - Ulm 1846	3:2 ✺
03.03.26	Ulm 1846 - Hoffenheim II	1:3 ✺
28.02.26	Jahn Regensburg - Ulm 1846	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	Ulm 1846 - Saarbrücken	1:1 ✺
15.02.26	Ulm 1846 - Alemannia Aachen	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLTTL
- FC Ingolstadt 04
German 3 Bundesliga
08.03.26	Ingolstadt - Verl	1:2 ✺
04.03.26	Ingolstadt - Duisburg	0:0 ✺
28.02.26	Wehen Wiesbaden - Ingolstadt	2:1 ✺
21.02.26	Ingolstadt - TSV Havelse	3:2 ✺
15.02.26	Schweinfurt - Ingolstadt	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LTLWT

Latest Head to Head

German 3 Bundesliga
04.10.25	Ingolstadt - Ulm 1846	4:1
Club Friendly
27.07.24	Ingolstadt - Ulm 1846	1:1
German 3 Bundesliga
24.02.24	Ulm 1846 - Ingolstadt	0:0
30.09.23	Ingolstadt - Ulm 1846	4:0

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