Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C - Round 20

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Campo da Portela (Santa Catarina da Serra)


	União da Serra		SB Castelo Branco

	1	X	2
	2.2	3	3.05
	2.45	2.85	2.9
	2.39	2.97	2.96	Watch
	2.4	2.7	2.9
	2.41	2.88	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↑ (2.15)	2.88 ↓ (3.15)	2.95 ↓ (3.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

União da Serra
38.1%

Draw
31.3%

SB Castelo Branco
30.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.2%

28.7%

29.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

28.1%

28.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

União da Serra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

SB Castelo Branco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for União da Serra than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for SB Castelo Branco than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

União da Serra - SB Castelo Branco Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
69', 2 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 6 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Campeonato de Portugal ~ Promotion Group).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

SB Castelo Branco may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

União da Serra could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, União da Serra won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:8. (average 1.3:2.7).

Including home match between the teams, União da Serra won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Uniao Da Serra	4	2	2	0	6:4	2	8
8	SB Castelo Branco	4	2	0	2	7:9	-2	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- União da Serra
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
22.02.26	Eléctrico - União da Serra	2:4 ✺
15.02.26	União da Serra - Vitória de Sernache	0:0 ✺
25.01.26	União da Serra - Naval	2:0 ✺
17.01.26	Mortágua - União da Serra	1:0 ✺
10.01.26	União da Serra - Fatima	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WTWLT
- SB Castelo Branco
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
21.02.26	Lajense - SB Castelo Branco	2:3 ✺
15.02.26	SB Castelo Branco - Eléctrico	6:1 ✺
25.01.26	SB Castelo Branco - Os Marialvas	0:1 ✺
17.01.26	Naval - SB Castelo Branco	1:0 ✺
10.01.26	SB Castelo Branco - Mortágua	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
26.10.25	SB Castelo Branco - União da Serra	3:0
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
05.03.23	SB Castelo Branco - União da Serra	4:3
20.11.22	União da Serra - SB Castelo Branco	1:1

União da Serra - SB Castelo Branco: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide