Match Info

PERU: LIGA 1 - APERTURA - ROUND 8

Date: 15 March 2024, Friday

Location: Estadio Municipal Carlos Vidaurre Garcia (Tarapoto)

Referee: Espinoza M. (Per)


	Unión Comercio		Deportivo Garcilaso

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.25	3.25	Watch
	2.05	3.25	3
	2.2	3.25	3.3
	2.23	3.5	3.14
	2.23	3.45	3.14
	2.1	3.4	3
	2.15	3.5	3.14	Watch
	2.16	3.35	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↑ (2.03)	3.37 ↑ (3.27)	3.14 ↓ (3.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Unión Comercio
43%

Draw
27.5%

Deportivo Garcilaso
29.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.1%

28%

26.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.9%

27.9%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Unión Comercio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Deportivo Garcilaso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Unión Comercio than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Garcilaso than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Unión Comercio - Deportivo Garcilaso Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Unión Comercio will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Deportivo Garcilaso will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Barrios I. (G) 17. Vargas D. 3. Paredes T. 20. Ramirez C. 23. Alvarez J. 5. Sanchez K. 19. Uribe C. 15. Jimenez O. 30. Torres J. 10. Hernan Perez 9. de Jesus M.	1. Penny D. (G) 2. Salazar A. 4. Caicedo L. 13. Lojas J. 7. Gomez A. 14. Diez C. 27. Bazan J. 16. Beltran C. 10. Chicaiza L. 11. Gentile G. 32. Erustes P.
Substitutes
13. Angulo Grueso B. A. 12. Diaz W. (G) 11. Guerrero G. 24. Javier Navea 28. Labrin V. 25. Millan D. 14. Regalado I. 2. Salas J. 29. Zeta H.	22. Canales E. 6. Cuero J. 31. Gonzales E. 24. Gordillo A. 21. Perleche E. 17. Rodriguez P. 9. Ugarriza A. 25. Vargas M. (G) 8. Ventura F.
Coaches
Craviotto N.	Redin B.

Preview

Unión Comercio is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Deportivo Garcilaso is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Unión Comercio will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Unión Comercio won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Unión Comercio won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Unión Comercio
Peruvian Liga 1
10.03.24	Sport Huancayo - Unión Comercio	2:2 ✺
04.03.24	Unión Comercio - Cajamarca	2:0 ✺
24.02.24	FBC Melgar - Unión Comercio	2:1 ✺
18.02.24	Unión Comercio - Alianza Lima	1:3 ✺
12.02.24	Atlético Grau - Unión Comercio	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 TWLLL
- Deportivo Garcilaso
Peruvian Liga 1
08.03.24	Deportivo Garcilaso - Universitario de Deportes	2:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
05.03.24	Deportivo Garcilaso - ADT Tarma	1:0 penalties ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
29.02.24	Alianza Atlético - Deportivo Garcilaso	3:0 ✺
25.02.24	Deportivo Garcilaso - Universidad César Vallejo	2:0 ✺
17.02.24	Cusco - Deportivo Garcilaso	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 TWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
22.10.23	Unión Comercio - Deportivo Garcilaso	1:2
03.06.23	Deportivo Garcilaso - Unión Comercio	2:2

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