Match Info

Liga de Ascenso - Round 29

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal de San Felipe (San Felipe)


	Unión San Felipe		Santiago Morning

	1	X	2
	2.02	3.2	3.55
	1.87	3.36	3.82
	2.61	3.31	2.56	Watch
	2.06	3.29	3.59
	2.54	3.2	2.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↓ (2.54)	3.27 ↑ (3.2)	3.21 ↑ (2.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Unión San Felipe
42.2%

Draw
28.6%

Santiago Morning
29.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.8%

28.4%

35.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.8%

29.2%

34.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Unión San Felipe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Unión San Felipe's performance.

Santiago Morning has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Santiago Morning might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Unión San Felipe than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Unión San Felipe that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santiago Morning than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Santiago Morning could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Unión San Felipe - Santiago Morning Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Unión San Felipe will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Santiago Morning will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Unión San Felipe (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Garces P. (C) 23. Gonzalez Y. 8. Ferrari J. 2. Monteseirin F. 16. Navarro P. 5. Leon A. 6. Gonzalez B. 26. Rodriguez P. 11. Riveros B. 34. Cuellar D. 7. Vergara S.	12. Canete L. (G) 3. Guajardo Barrera B. 25. Estay D. 23. Delgado M. 20. Ormeno E. 21. Manriquez Hernandez F. (C) 15. Cortes F. 4. Iturra M. 17. Castro P. 6. Asprea T. 18. Taiva B.
Substitutes
13. Carcamo M. 14. Cordova J. 1. Fuentes C. (G) 19. Gonzalez D. 31. Herrera H. 28. Olea M. 10. Sagredo B.	1. Arana A. (G) 7. Arancibia M. 22. Arias D. 10. Campillay K. 16. Ceron D. 19. Monje J. 2. Santelices G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
21', Iturra M. 🟨,
25', Delgado M. 🟨,
30', Gonzalez Y. 🟨,
33', Manriquez Hernandez F. 🟨,
36', Garces P. 🟨,
40', Ferrari J. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
53', Castro P. ↓, Campillay K. ↑,
61', 1 - 0, Cuellar D. ⚽,
62', Asprea T. ↓, Arias D. ↑,
67', Ferrari J. ↓, Cordova J. ↑,
69', 2 - 0, Vergara S. ⚽,
73', Ormeno E. 🟨,
75', Taiva B. ↓, Arancibia M. ↑,
75', Manriquez Hernandez F. ↓, Santelices G. ↑,
77', Cuellar D. ↓, Gonzalez D. ↑,
81', Cordova J. 🟨,
83', Navarro P. ↓, Herrera H. ↑,
83', Riveros B. ↓, Sagredo B. ↑,
90+4', Arias D. 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 15 and 16 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Unión San Felipe won 2.

Unión San Felipe is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Santiago Morning's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Santiago Morning may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Unión San Felipe is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Unión San Felipe won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 26:22. (average 1.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Unión San Felipe won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:11. (average 1.2:1.1).

Last Results with these Odds

Santiago Morning - the odds 2.54 are the expected chance of winning is 35.79%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Unión San Felipe
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
18.10.25	San Marcos de Arica - Unión San Felipe	1:0 ✺
12.10.25	Unión San Felipe - Deportes Santa Cruz	0:0 ✺
04.10.25	Universidad de Concepción - Unión San Felipe	2:1 ✺
14.09.25	Rangers de Talca - Unión San Felipe	2:1 ✺
06.09.25	Unión San Felipe - Curicó Unido	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LTLLW
- Santiago Morning
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
17.10.25	Santiago Morning - Cobreloa	3:0 ✺
11.10.25	Deportes Magallanes - Santiago Morning	0:1 ✺
05.10.25	Santiago Morning - Santiago Wanderers	1:1 ✺
12.09.25	Santiago Morning - Universidad de Concepción	0:0 ✺
07.09.25	Deportes Antofagasta - Santiago Morning	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.1 WWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Liga de Ascenso
15.06.25	Santiago Morning - Unión San Felipe	2:1
25.09.24	Santiago Morning - Unión San Felipe	0:1
10.05.24	Unión San Felipe - Santiago Morning	2:2
29.07.23	Unión San Felipe - Santiago Morning	2:1
14.03.23	Santiago Morning - Unión San Felipe	2:1
25.07.22	Unión San Felipe - Santiago Morning	2:0
08.03.22	Santiago Morning - Unión San Felipe	1:1

Upcoming Matches