The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
San Marcos de Arica 60.9%
Draw 23.9%
Unión San Felipe 15.2%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
61.8%
22.9%
15.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
47%
17.4%
20.1%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
San Marcos de Arica has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)
Unión San Felipe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Marcos de Arica than the current prediction. (-13.9%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with San Marcos de Arica that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Unión San Felipe than the current prediction. (+4.9%)
San Marcos de Arica - Unión San Felipe Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Saracho R. (G) 8. Barrios A. (C) 5. Rivera J. 23. Cazula A. 14. Guerra C. 10. Sagredo B. 4. Iturra M. 16. Reyes G. 19. Maidana A. 33. Benavides E. 9. Melivilu Fuentes C.
12. Canete L. (G) 25. Sanchez V. 34. Suarez C. (C) 2. Perales V. 16. Fuentes D. 27. Garcia L. 8. Palmieri N. 33. Gonzalez B. 9. Aravena B. 18. Munoz P. 14. Riveros B.
Substitutes
20. Abalos A. 22. Donadell N. 39. Gallegos V. 7. Monroy B. 27. Orrego I. 21. Orrego N.
5. Bravo D. 21. Brun N. 17. Diaz R. 20. Fontana A. 7. Henriquez O. 29. Martinez L. 35. Palacios R.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Riveros B. ↓, Brun N. ↑,
19', Rivera J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Munoz P. ↓, Fontana A. ↑,
46', Sagredo B. ↓, Donadell N. ↑,
62', Benavides E. ↓, Abalos A. ↑,
70', 0 - 1, Garcia L. ⚽,
72', Suarez C. ↓, Martinez L. ↑,
72', Gonzalez B. ↓, Diaz Orostegui R. ↑,
73', Iturra M. ↓, Orrego N. ↑,
74', Maidana A. ↓, Monroy B. ↑,
83', Cazula A. 🟨,
89', Aravena B. ↓, Henriquez O. ↑,
Preview
This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Primera (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 14).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, San Marcos de Arica won 3.
In recent matches, San Marcos de Arica has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Unión San Felipe has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
In this match, San Marcos de Arica is seen as the favorite.
In the last 17 head-to-head matches, San Marcos de Arica won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 17:16. (average 1:0.9).
Including home matches between the teams, San Marcos de Arica won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:8. (average 1.3:0.9).
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Saracho R. (G) 
Barrios A. (C) 
Brun N. 
Palacios R. 
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