Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 5

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Ruta de la Plata (Zamora)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Zamora		Mérida AD

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.2	4.33
	1.82	3.25	4.35
	1.79	3.39	4.83
	1.00	17.55	25.00	Watch
	1.88	3.14	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↓ (1.66)	6.11 ↑ (3.43)	8.57 ↑ (4.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Zamora
68.4%

Draw
18.4%

Mérida AD
13.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.1%

26.6%

18.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.6%

25.9%

17.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Zamora has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Zamora's performance.

Mérida AD has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mérida AD might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zamora than the current prediction. (-11.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Zamora that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Zamora - Mérida AD Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Zamora (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sobron F. (G) 8. Lucero R. 4. Athuman I. 5. Ruiz E. 20. Codina M. 15. Buron L. 10. Ramos C. 16. Lozano M. 7. Kike 9. Eslava J. 17. Carbonell J.	1. Csenterics A. (G) 19. Pipe 5. Dominguez J. 15. Martinez G. 3. Lancho J. 23. Verges E. 21. Beneit R. 8. Solar M. 17. Herranz Corral V. 10. Doncel C. 9. Garcia A.
Substitutes
18. Farrell J. 6. Garcia M. 21. Lopez M. 23. Lopez S. 2. Luengo Herrera L. M. 3. Merchan D. 19. Monerris A. 13. Pereda A. (G) 11. Romero Morillo A. 22. Sancho J.	11. Areso J. 14. Artola J. 13. Cacharron P. (G) 16. Capitas M. 7. Chiqui 18. Dibrani B. 26. Gil A. (G) 12. Gomes R. 6. Miki 4. Pareja Alvarez L. 24. Pereira R. 22. Rivas M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
23', 1 - 0, Eslava J. ⚽,
26', Solar M. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
48', 2 - 0, Kike ⚽,
49', 🟨,
64', Herranz Corral V. ↓, Areso J. ↑,
64', Martinez G. ↓, Chiqui ↑,
68', Buron L. ↓, Merchan D. ↑,
68', Carbonell J. ↓, Sancho J. ↑,
73', 🟨,
79', 3 - 0, Lozano M. ⚽,
80', 🟨,
81', Kike ↓, Romero Morillo A. ↑,
82', Verges E. ↓, Artola J. ↑,
82', Doncel C. ↓, Rivas M. ↑,

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Zamora may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Zamora is considered a favorite.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Zamora CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
20.09.25	Arenteiro - Zamora	0:0 ✺
Spanish Copa Federacion
17.09.25	Ourense CF - Zamora	2:1 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
14.09.25	Zamora - Lugo	1:0 ✺
Spanish Copa Federacion
10.09.25	Zamora - Amorebieta	4:1 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
06.09.25	Barakaldo - Zamora	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 TLWWT
- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
20.09.25	Cacereño - Mérida AD	2:1 ✺
13.09.25	Mérida AD - Celta de Vigo B	2:4 ✺
06.09.25	Tenerife - Mérida AD	3:0 ✺
30.08.25	Mérida AD - Barakaldo	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
22.08.25	Unionistas de Salamanca - Mérida AD	2:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LLLWW

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