Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 14

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Referee: Araujo G. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports


	Universidad Católica del Ecuador		Delfín

	1	X	2
	1.39	4.33	7	Watch
	1.41	4.15	7.1	Watch
	1.41	4.45	8.53
	1.41	4.32	8.13	Watch
	1.4	3.75	7.5
	1.4	4.3	8.15	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↑ (1.37)	4.22 ↓ (4.5)	7.74 ↓ (8.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Universidad Católica del Ecuador
66%

Draw
22%

Delfín
12%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68%

20.7%

11.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.1%

16.5%

14.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universidad Católica del Ecuador has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Delfín has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Universidad Católica del Ecuador than the current prediction. (-11.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Universidad Católica del Ecuador that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Delfín than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Delfín Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Romo R. (G) 29. Anangono G. 33. Canga L. (C) 4. Jhon Chancellor 44. Valencia E. 5. Cacciabue J. 15. Moreno L. 30. Mejia E. 23. Rodriguez A. 32. Alonso M. 18. Palacios B.	22. Cardenas J. (G) 77. Hernandez B. 33. Cabeza E. 32. Bedoya A. (C) 6. Burdisso M. 14. Zuniga E. 78. Ushina K. 34. Heredia G. 16. Castro L. 10. Mendoza E. 9. Ayunta F.
Substitutes
1. Cueva L. 28. Diaz M. 7. Fajardo J. 12. Lara J. (G) 9. Londono A. 10. Martinez F. 37. Medina C. 24. Nazareno D. 6. Palacios D. 13. Rose E. 17. Troya R. 26. Yanez S.	7. Alvarez A. 13. Cardenas B. (G) 40. Castillo Saa J. L. 19. Cavallaro J. 5. Medina O. 8. Molinas I. A. 18. Morocho J. 50. Ozaeta T. 29. Ratotti F. 99. Tenorio L. 30. Valverde J. 27. Yepez E.
Coaches
Martinez D.	Zubeldia J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
6', 1 - 0, Mejia E. ⚽, Valencia E. (A),
30', 1 - 1, Ushina K. ⚽,
40', Alonso M. 🟨,
41', Cacciabue J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
51', Cabeza E. 🟨,
62', Moreno L. ↓, Diaz M. ↑,
62', Mejia E. ↓, Fajardo J. ↑,
64', 1 - 2, Mendoza E. (Penalty Awarded),
67', 2 - 2, Fajardo J. ⚽, Diaz M. (A),
70', Burdisso M. 🟨,
76', Ayunta F. ↓, Castillo Saa J. L. ↑,
76', Hernandez B. ↓, Medina O. ↑,
79', Rodriguez A. ↓, Nazareno D. ↑,
83', Zuniga E. ↓, Ozaeta T. ↑,
83', Castro L. ↓, Valverde J. ↑,
86', Anangono G. ↓, Yanez S. ↑,
86', Palacios B. ↓, Rose E. ↑,
90+3', Mendoza E. ↓, Molinas I. A. ↑,
90+6', 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: ) and 11 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Uni Católica won 2.

Uni Católica is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Delfín's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Delfín may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Uni Católica is the clear favorite.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Uni Católica won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:10. (average 1.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Uni Católica won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:7. (average 1.8:1.4).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	U. Catolica	31	14	9	8	52:29	23	51

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Universidad Católica del Ecuador
Ecuadorian Super Cup
13.05.26	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Independiente del Valle	0:3 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
09.05.26	SD Aucas - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	2:1 ✺
01.05.26	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Independiente del Valle	2:3 ✺
27.04.26	Manta - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:0 ✺
23.04.26	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Deportivo Macará	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LLLLW
- Delfín SC
Ecuadorian Copa
12.05.26	Baños Ciudad de Fuego - Delfín	0:2 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
09.05.26	Técnico Universitario - Delfín	4:0 ✺
03.05.26	Delfín - Mushuc Runa	1:0 ✺
27.04.26	SD Aucas - Delfín	1:0 ✺
22.04.26	Delfín - Independiente del Valle	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
13.09.25	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Delfín	1:1
18.05.25	Delfín - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:0
23.09.24	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Delfín	2:1
07.04.24	Delfín - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	0:2
23.10.23	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Delfín	2:2
14.05.23	Delfín - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	0:0
23.10.22	Delfín - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	2:1

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