Match Info

Liga Pro - Relegation Group - Round 2

Date: 9 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Jocay (Manta) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Guerrero G. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Ecuador	15:30	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	15:30	Zapping Sports


	Delfín		Mushuc Runa

	1	X	2
	2.01	3.20	3.60	Watch
	2.05	3.00	3.25
	2.28	3.15	3.20	Watch
	2.19	3.08	3.95
	2.58	3.05	2.87	Watch
	2.16	2.90	3.90
	2.06	3.23	3.63	Watch
	2.10	3.00	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↓ (2.6)	3.08 ↑ (3)	3.48 ↑ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Delfín
42.8%

Draw
30.3%

Mushuc Runa
26.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

34.9%

30.2%

34.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.7%

30%

35.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Delfín has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Delfín's performance.

Mushuc Runa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mushuc Runa might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Delfín than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Delfín that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mushuc Runa than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mushuc Runa could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	50%	25%

Delfín - Mushuc Runa Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Delfín will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Mushuc Runa will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Heras B. (G) 77. Hernandez B. 32. Bedoya A. (C) 5. Medina O. 14. Zuniga E. 34. Heredia G. 18. Morocho J. 31. Arce J. 10. Luna D. 50. Ozaeta T. 9. Ayunta F.	25. Formento R. (C) 99. Angulo C. 4. Biojo R. 30. Carabali F. 33. Hernandez J. 10. Mina F. 8. Zambrano A. 5. Davila E. 28. Perea M. 9. Tufino R. 7. Minda T.
Substitutes
3. Aimar D. 51. Banguero C. 39. Caicedo E. 22. Cardenas J. (G) 16. Castro L. 23. Cornejo L. 70. Espinoza E. 8. Moreno K. 11. Perinciolo F. 55. Reyes M. 99. Tenorio L. 78. Ushina K.	14. Caicedo E. 61. Caicedo J. 19. Corozo B. 50. Cusme J. 2. Flor F. 57. Folleco A. 18. Gonzalez J. 23. Lemos L. 37. Mancilla Quinones J. L. 52. Merino D. 42. Pabon W. (G) 26. Peralta K.
Coaches
Leon J.	Velez P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
20', Hernandez J. 🟨,
31', 0 - 1, Tufino R. ⚽, Minda T. (A),
35', 0 - 2, Biojo R. ⚽, Perea M. (A),
41', 1 - 2, Arce J. ⚽, Luna D. (A),
45', 2 - 2, Zuniga E. ⚽, Luna D. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
48', Angulo C. 🟨,
56', Ayunta F. 🟨,
62', Tufino R. ↓, Caicedo E. ↑,
62', Mina F. ↓, Gonzalez J. ↑,
63', Zambrano A. ↓, Corozo B. ↑,
66', Heredia G. ↓, Castro L. ↑,
66', Arce J. ↓, Ushina K. ↑,
75', Minda T. ↓, Lemos L. ↑,
75', Davila E. ↓, Peralta K. ↑,
81', Hernandez B. ↓, Reyes M. ↑,
87', 3 - 2, Reyes M. ⚽, Castro L. (A),
87', Reyes M. 🟨,
90+1', Morocho J. ↓, Espinoza E. ↑,
90+1', Luna D. ↓, Aimar D. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Delfín won 3.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Delfín is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Delfín has recorded 9 wins, 1 draw, and 10 losses, with a goal aggregate of 25:33 (averaging 1.3:1.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Delfín against this opponent, the record stands at 8 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 21:5 goals (averaging 2.3:0.6 per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Delfín - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 34.9%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Delfín SC
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
20.09.26	Técnico Universitario - Delfín	1:1 ✺
13.09.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Delfín	1:1 ✺
06.09.26	Delfín - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	0:1 ✺
01.09.26	Delfín - Técnico Universitario	1:0 ✺
28.08.26	Mushuc Runa - Delfín	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 TTLWL
- Mushuc Runa
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
20.09.26	Deportivo Cuenca - Mushuc Runa	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Guayaquil City - Mushuc Runa	3:1 ✺
07.09.26	Mushuc Runa - Leones del Norte	1:1 ✺
01.09.26	LDU Quito - Mushuc Runa	0:0 ✺
28.08.26	Mushuc Runa - Delfín	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 TLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
28.08.26	Mushuc Runa - Delfín	1:0
03.05.26	Delfín - Mushuc Runa	1:0
15.06.25	Delfín - Mushuc Runa	3:1
17.02.25	Mushuc Runa - Delfín	2:0
08.11.24	Delfín - Mushuc Runa	4:2
19.05.24	Mushuc Runa - Delfín	5:0
16.09.23	Mushuc Runa - Delfín	2:0

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