Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 24 July 2024, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Referee: Rojas A. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN 2
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, beIN Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Moja TV
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, FuboTV
Chile	ESPN 2
Colombia	ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 1
Georgia	Silk Universal
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 3
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Portugal	Sport TV1, Sport TV2
Russia	Okko Sport
Spain	beIN Sports
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, FuboTV
World	Amazon Prime Video, Disney+, Fanatiz


	Universidad Católica		Libertad Asuncion

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.1	6.5	Watch
	1.51	4.2	6
	1.47	4.33	6.5	Watch
	1.52	4.22	6.66
	1.54	4.14	6.3
	1.44	4	6.5	Watch
	1.5	4.2	6.25	Watch
	1.5	4.2	6.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↓ (1.85)	4.17 ↑ (3.15)	6.36 ↑ (4.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Universidad Católica
62.7%

Draw
22.5%

Libertad Asuncion
14.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.6%

29.1%

21.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

25.5%

24.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universidad Católica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Universidad Católica's performance.

Libertad Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Libertad Asuncion might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Universidad Católica than the current prediction. (-19.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Universidad Católica that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (+9.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Libertad Asuncion could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	6.7%	13.3%

Universidad Católica - Libertad Asuncion Predictions

Users Predictions: Universidad Católica will win (12 of 15 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.76% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Romo R. (G) 29. Anangono G. 15. Vallecilla G. 37. Grillo F. 18. Loor L. 4. Minda K. 10. Martinez F. (C) 26. Palacios B. 21. Nieto L. 7. Rodriguez A. 9. Fajardo J.	12. Morinigo Acosta R. M. (G) 2. Ramirez I. 27. Jacquet M. 5. Viera D. 4. Gimenez N. 20. Bareiro A. 21. Sanabria L. 26. Caballero H. 10. Melgarejo L. 19. Lezcano R. 24. Santa C. R. (C)
Substitutes
20. Castillo Saa J. L. 16. Cifuentes J. 8. Clavijo E. 28. Diaz M. 12. Lara J. (G) 52. Moreno J. 25. Mosquera I. 19. Pierre Chala J. 3. Quinonez J. 13. Romero Padilla D. A. 11. Vivar J.	9. Aguilar G. 36. Cardozo Lucena A. 7. Cardozo O. 38. Del Valle S. 22. Martinez H. 11. Mendieta W. 33. Piris I. 16. Riveros C. 37. Schabus M. 13. Silva A. 1. Silva M. (G) 35. Villalba R.
Coaches
Celico J.	Galeano A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Fajardo J. ⚽, Nieto L. (A),
12', Melgarejo L. 🟨,
42', Caballero H. 🟨,
45', Bareiro A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
67', Santa C. R. ↓, Cardozo O. ↑,
67', Lezcano R. ↓, Silva A. ↑,
73', Nieto L. ↓, Cifuentes J. ↑,
76', Anangono G. ↓, Diaz M. ↑,
80', Rodriguez A. ↓, Vivar J. ↑,
80', Loor L. ↓, Castillo Saa J. L. ↑,
86', Melgarejo L. ↓, Piris I. ↑,
89', Bareiro A. ↓, Aguilar G. ↑,
89', Sanabria L. ↓, Cardozo Lucena A. ↑,
90+1', 1 - 1, Cardozo O. ⚽, Aguilar G. (A),

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 0-2.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Universidad Católica won 0.

Recent matches Universidad Católica is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Libertad in the latest match got series victories and it is in excellent form (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

In this match Universidad Católica is a favorite.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Universidad Católica won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 7-16.

Including matches at home between the teams Universidad Católica won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 4-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Universidad Católica
Chilean Primera Division
20.07.24	Universidad Católica - Unión La Calera	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
17.07.24	Libertad Asuncion - Universidad Católica	2:0 ✺
Chilean Cup
29.06.24	Universidad Católica - Santiago Wanderers	2:2 ✺
23.06.24	Santiago Wanderers - Universidad Católica	0:0 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
02.06.24	Coquimbo Unido - Universidad Católica	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 WLTTL
- Libertad Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
20.07.24	Tacuary - Libertad Asuncion	2:4 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
17.07.24	Libertad Asuncion - Universidad Católica	2:0 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
05.06.24	Olimpia Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion	1:3 ✺
02.06.24	Libertad Asuncion - General Caballero JLM	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
30.05.24	Libertad Asuncion - Nacional Montevideo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
17.07.24	Libertad Asuncion - Universidad Católica	2:0
Copa Libertadores
17.03.21	Libertad Asuncion - Universidad Católica	2:2
10.03.21	Universidad Católica - Libertad Asuncion	0:1
10.04.19	Universidad Católica - Libertad Asuncion	2:3
05.03.19	Libertad Asuncion - Universidad Católica	4:1
Copa Sudamericana
17.09.15	Libertad Asuncion - Universidad Católica	1:0
27.08.15	Universidad Católica - Libertad Asuncion	2:3

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