Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 6

Date: 30 May 2024, Thursday

Location: Estadio Tigo La Huerta (Asunción)

Referee: Sampaio W. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Croatia	Arena Sport 1


	Libertad Asuncion		Nacional Montevideo

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.3	2.63	Watch
	2.65	3.3	2.55
	2.7	3.25	2.6
	2.76	3.2	2.7
	2.73	3.19	2.7
	2.5	3.3	2.5	Watch
	2.71	3.42	2.62	Watch
	2.6	3.2	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↑ (2.11)	3.27 ↓ (3.27)	2.61 ↓ (3.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Libertad Asuncion
35.2%

Draw
28.8%

Nacional Montevideo
36%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.5%

28.7%

26.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45%

29%

26.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Libertad Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Libertad Asuncion's form might have worsened.

Nacional Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Nacional Montevideo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (+9.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Libertad Asuncion, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (-9.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Nacional Montevideo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30.8%	53.8%	15.4%

Libertad Asuncion - Nacional Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Libertad will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). Nacional will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 53.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Morinigo Acosta R. M. (G) 13. Silva A. 27. Jacquet M. 14. Cardozo L. 33. Piris I. 10. Melgarejo L. 8. Merlini B. 36. Cardozo Lucena A. 11. Mendieta W. 20. Bareiro A. 7. Cardozo O.	12. Mejia L. (C) 11. Baez Corradi G. 3. Izquierdo J. 5. Romero F. 14. Lozano L. 16. Castro A. 8. Oliva C. 26. Sanabria L. 19. Gonzalez G. 9. Bentancourt R. 7. Galeano A.
Substitutes
9. Aguilar G. 26. Caballero H. 17. Espinoza M. 28. Fernandez M. 18. Franco I. 25. Gonzalez A. (G) 19. Lezcano R. 2. Ramirez I. 16. Riveros C. 21. Sanabria L. 24. Santa C. R. 5. Viera D.	6. Cairus F. 30. Ebere C. 4. Haller R. 27. Lopez G. 32. Martinez F. 10. Pereyra M. 24. Petit G. 18. Recoba J. 29. Santander F. 25. Suarez I. (G) 2. Velazquez E. 22. Zabala D.
Coaches
Galeano A.	Recoba A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
13', 0 - 1, Romero F. ⚽, Galeano A. (A),
29', 1 - 1, Cardozo O. ⚽, Mendieta W. (A),
38', Bareiro A. 🟨,
40', Gonzalez G. 🟨,
41', 2 - 1, Silva A. ⚽, Melgarejo L. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Gonzalez G. ↓, Zabala D. ↑,
46', Sanabria L. ↓, Pereyra M. ↑,
48', Cardozo Lucena A. 🟨,
65', Cardozo O. ↓, Aguilar G. ↑,
65', Bareiro A. ↓, Fernandez M. ↑,
68', Galeano A. ↓, Santander F. ↑,
68', Oliva C. ↓, Recoba J. ↑,
70', Jacquet M. 🟨,
72', Merlini B. 🟨,
72', Bentancourt R. 🟨,
73', Pereyra M. 🟨,
76', Cardozo Lucena A. ↓, Caballero H. ↑,
76', Mendieta W. ↓, Sanabria L. ↑,
80', Bentancourt R. ↓, Ebere C. ↑,
83', Cardozo L. 🟨,
85', Merlini B. ↓, Espinoza M. ↑,

Preview

Nacional is Qualified for Copa Libertadores (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

At the moment teams are feeling good and ready to play.

Nacional could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Libertad won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Libertad won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Libertad Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
26.05.24	Sportivo Ameliano - Libertad Asuncion	0:1 ✺
21.05.24	Libertad Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	5:0 ✺
18.05.24	Tacuary - Libertad Asuncion	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.05.24	River Plate Montevideo - Libertad Asuncion	2:0 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
10.05.24	Libertad Asuncion - Sol de América	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWTLW
- Nacional Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
25.05.24	Nacional Montevideo - Danubio	1:0 ✺
20.05.24	Deportivo Maldonado - Nacional Montevideo	0:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
15.05.24	Deportivo Táchira - Nacional Montevideo	0:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
10.05.24	Nacional Montevideo - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	1:4 ✺
Copa Libertadores
07.05.24	Nacional Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
03.04.24	Nacional Montevideo - Libertad Asuncion	2:0
05.04.12	Libertad Asuncion - Nacional Montevideo	2:1

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