Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 17 July 2024, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Tigo La Huerta (Asunción)

Referee: Zanovelli P. C. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, FuboTV
Chile	ESPN 2
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1
Indonesia	Mola TV
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Portugal	Sport TV1
Spain	beIN Sports
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, FuboTV
World	Disney+, Fanatiz


	Libertad Asuncion		Universidad Católica

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.5	4.33	Watch
	1.8	3.6	4.2
	1.8	3.6	4.2	Watch
	1.84	3.55	4.37
	1.87	3.63	4.16
	1.73	3.5	4.2	Watch
	1.82	3.64	4.17	Watch
	1.83	3.5	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↑ (1.62)	3.57 ↓ (3.85)	4.23 ↓ (5.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Libertad Asuncion
51.6%

Draw
26.3%

Universidad Católica
22.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.9%

24.4%

17.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.5%

23%

16.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Libertad Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Libertad Asuncion's form might have worsened.

Universidad Católica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (+9.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Libertad Asuncion, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Universidad Católica than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Universidad Católica, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	8.3%	16.7%

Libertad Asuncion - Universidad Católica Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Libertad will win (votes: 9 - 75%). Uni Católica will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Libertad: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Morinigo Acosta R. M. (G) 2. Ramirez I. 4. Gimenez N. (C) 5. Viera D. 14. Cardozo L. 18. Franco I. 19. Lezcano R. 21. Sanabria L. 26. Caballero H. 10. Melgarejo L. 7. Cardozo O.	22. Romo R. (G) 37. Grillo F. 4. Minda K. 15. Vallecilla G. 13. Romero Padilla D. A. 27. Quevedo K. 21. Nieto L. 10. Martinez F. (C) 18. Loor L. 7. Rodriguez A. 9. Fajardo J.
Substitutes
9. Aguilar G. 20. Bareiro A. 36. Cardozo Lucena A. 27. Jacquet M. 22. Martinez H. 11. Mendieta W. 33. Piris I. 16. Riveros C. 24. Santa C. R. 13. Silva A. 1. Silva M. (G) 35. Villalba R.	29. Anangono G. 20. Castillo Saa J. L. 16. Cifuentes J. 8. Clavijo E. 12. Lara J. (G) 52. Moreno J. 25. Mosquera I. 26. Palacios B. 19. Pierre Chala J. 3. Quinonez J. 11. Vivar J.
Coaches
Galeano A.	Celico J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Nieto L. 🟨,
33', Rodriguez A. 🟨,
42', Caballero H. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
49', 1 - 0, Cardozo O. ⚽, Melgarejo L. (A),
68', Quevedo K. ↓, Palacios B. ↑,
69', Cardozo O. ↓, Santa C. R. ↑,
74', 2 - 0, Sanabria L. ⚽,
75', Romero Padilla D. A. ↓, Cifuentes J. ↑,
80', Melgarejo L. ↓, Bareiro A. ↑,
80', Lezcano R. ↓, Martinez H. ↑,
82', Grillo F. 🟨,
85', Cardozo L. ↓, Jacquet M. ↑,
85', Franco I. ↓, Aguilar G. ↑,
90', Rodriguez A. ↓, Vivar J. ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Libertad won 4.

Libertad in the last match got a series victories and it is an a fantastic form (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recent matches Universidad Católica is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Libertad is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Libertad to win the game is with odds 1.8.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Libertad won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 14-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Libertad won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Libertad Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
05.06.24	Olimpia Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion	1:3 ✺
02.06.24	Libertad Asuncion - General Caballero JLM	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
30.05.24	Libertad Asuncion - Nacional Montevideo	2:1 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
26.05.24	Sportivo Ameliano - Libertad Asuncion	0:1 ✺
21.05.24	Libertad Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WWWWW
- Universidad Católica
Chilean Cup
29.06.24	Universidad Católica - Santiago Wanderers	2:2 ✺
23.06.24	Santiago Wanderers - Universidad Católica	0:0 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
02.06.24	Coquimbo Unido - Universidad Católica	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
30.05.24	Cruzeiro - Universidad Católica	1:0 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
25.05.24	Universidad Católica - Cobreloa	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 TTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
17.03.21	Libertad Asuncion - Universidad Católica	2:2
10.03.21	Universidad Católica - Libertad Asuncion	0:1
10.04.19	Universidad Católica - Libertad Asuncion	2:3
05.03.19	Libertad Asuncion - Universidad Católica	4:1
Copa Sudamericana
17.09.15	Libertad Asuncion - Universidad Católica	1:0
27.08.15	Universidad Católica - Libertad Asuncion	2:3

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