Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 20 August 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, DSports 1, ESPN 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Belarus	Okko Sport
Bolivia	Tigo Sports 2
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports
Georgia	Silk Sport 3
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	Como TV
Malaysia	Mola
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Peru	DirecTV Sports
South-america	DGO Latin America, ViX Latin America
Spain	LaLiga+
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Fubo Latino, Tubi TV
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, Inter


	Universidad Católica del Ecuador		Alianza Lima

	1	X	2
	1.6	3.9	5.75	Watch
	1.7	3.6	4.75
	1.55	3.95	5.4
	1.6	4	6.12
	1.54	3.90	6.19	Watch
	1.73	3.6	4.5	Watch
	1.62	3.91	5.54	Watch
	1.87	3.6	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (1.85)	3.81 ↑ (3.4)	5.28 ↑ (4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Universidad Católica del Ecuador
57.3%

Draw
24.8%

Alianza Lima
17.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.8%

27.1%

23%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

26.5%

23.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universidad Católica del Ecuador has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Universidad Católica del Ecuador's performance.

Alianza Lima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alianza Lima might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Universidad Católica del Ecuador than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Universidad Católica del Ecuador that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alianza Lima could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
53.3%	6.7%	40%

Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Alianza Lima Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Uni Católica will win (votes: 8 - 53.3%). Alianza Lima will win (votes: 6 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 6.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Uni Católica: 28.1% – 78.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Uni Católica (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Alianza Lima (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Lara J. (G) 29. Anangono G. 33. Canga L. 37. Medina C. 13. Romero Padilla D. A. 8. Clavijo E. (C) 15. Moreno L. 9. Londono A. 28. Diaz M. 32. Alonso M. 18. Palacios B.	23. Viscarra G. (G) 22. Enrique G. 5. Zambrano C. 6. Garces R. 21. Trauco M. 7. Gaibor F. 28. Burlamaqui A. 18. Pena S. 27. Quevedo K. 9. Barcos H. (C) 8. Castillo E.
Substitutes
5. Cacciabue J. 7. Fajardo J. 4. Jhon Chancellor 10. Martinez F. 30. Mejia E. 3. Mosquera I. 23. Rodriguez A. 22. Romo R. (G) 14. Sanchez I. 17. Troya R. 1. Valencia E. (G) 44. Valencia E.	17. Archimbaud J. 1. Campos A. (G) 19. Cantero A. 15. Castillo J. 10. Ceppelini P. 24. Chavez G. 37. Delgado J. 3. Estrada J. 25. Gentile G. 14. Huaman M. 13. Lagos R. 16. Succar M.
Coaches
Martinez D.	Gorosito N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
18', 1 - 0, Londono A. ⚽, Diaz M. (A),
39', 1 - 1, Castillo E. ⚽, Pena S. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Lara J. ↓, Valencia E. ↑,
46', Burlamaqui A. ↓, Archimbaud J. ↑,
56', Canga L. 🟨,
57', Moreno L. ↓, Cacciabue J. ↑,
58', Romero Padilla D. A. ↓, Mejia E. ↑,
62', Anangono G. 🟨,
65', Alonso M. ↓, Fajardo J. ↑,
67', Pena S. ↓, Cantero A. ↑,
68', Cantero A. 🟨,
81', Zambrano C. ↓, Chavez G. ↑,
81', 1 - 2, Quevedo K. ⚽, Barcos H. (A),
82', Quevedo K. 🟨,
85', Quevedo K. ↓, Gentile G. ↑,
85', Barcos H. ↓, Succar M. ↑,
85', Clavijo E. ↓, Martinez F. ↑,
90+5', Succar M. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg result: 0-2. 2nd leg.

Uni Católica has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Alianza Lima is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, Uni Católica is the team to beat.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Uni Católica won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Universidad Católica del Ecuador
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
16.08.25	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Libertad Loja	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
13.08.25	Alianza Lima - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	2:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
08.08.25	Orense - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:1 ✺
03.08.25	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - SD Aucas	6:2 ✺
27.07.25	Deportivo Macará - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 TLTWW
- Alianza Lima
Peruvian Liga 1
16.08.25	Alianza Lima - ADT Tarma	3:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
13.08.25	Alianza Lima - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	2:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
09.08.25	Ayacucho - Alianza Lima	0:1 ✺
05.08.25	Alianza Lima - Sporting Cristal	0:0 ✺
31.07.25	Juan Pablo II College - Alianza Lima	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
13.08.25	Alianza Lima - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	2:0

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