Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 13 August 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Alejandro Villanueva (Lima)

Referee: Rey Hilfer L. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, beIN Sports MENA 6, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Belarus	Okko Sport
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
Chile	Disney+
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	Como TV
Malaysia	Mola
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
South-america	DGO Latin America, ESPN South, ViX Latin America
Spain	LaLiga+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Tubi TV
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1, Inter


	Alianza Lima		Universidad Católica del Ecuador

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.5	4.75	Watch
	1.82	3.3	4.5
	1.78	3.55	4.7
	1.76	3.63	5.05
	1.75	3.26	5.20	Watch
	1.85	3.25	4.33	Watch
	1.75	3.55	5.02	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↑ (1.67)	3.43 ↓ (3.92)	4.79 ↓ (4.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alianza Lima
52.9%

Draw
27.4%

Universidad Católica del Ecuador
19.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.7%

24.1%

19.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.9%

26.3%

17.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alianza Lima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Universidad Católica del Ecuador has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (+9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alianza Lima, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Universidad Católica del Ecuador than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	60%	20%

Alianza Lima - Universidad Católica del Ecuador Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Alianza Lima will win (votes: 2 - 20%). Uni Católica will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 60%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Viscarra G. (G) 22. Enrique G. 6. Garces R. 4. Noriega E. 21. Trauco M. 7. Gaibor F. 28. Burlamaqui A. 27. Quevedo K. 8. Castillo E. 18. Pena S. 34. Paolo Guerrero (C)	12. Lara J. (G) 29. Anangono G. 33. Canga L. 37. Medina C. 13. Romero Padilla D. A. 8. Clavijo E. (C) 15. Moreno L. 28. Diaz M. 9. Londono A. 18. Palacios B. 32. Alonso M.
Substitutes
17. Archimbaud J. 9. Barcos H. 1. Campos A. (G) 19. Cantero A. 15. Castillo J. 10. Ceppelini P. 24. Chavez G. 3. Estrada J. 25. Gentile G. 14. Huaman M. 13. Lagos R. 16. Succar M.	5. Cacciabue J. 7. Fajardo J. 10. Martinez F. 30. Mejia E. 3. Mosquera I. 23. Rodriguez A. 22. Romo R. (G) 14. Sanchez I. 17. Troya R. 1. Valencia E. (G) 44. Valencia E.
Coaches
Gorosito N.	Martinez D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
36', Paolo Guerrero ↓, Barcos H. ↑,
42', Medina C. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
57', Anangono G. 🟨,
62', Burlamaqui A. ↓, Cantero A. ↑,
66', Diaz M. ↓, Martinez F. ↑,
68', Quevedo K. 🟨,
71', Castillo E. ↓, Ceppelini P. ↑,
76', Palacios B. ↓, Fajardo J. ↑,
76', 1 - 0, Cantero A. ⚽, Barcos H. (A),
84', Alonso M. ↓, Mejia E. ↑,
87', 2 - 0, Cantero A. ⚽,

Preview

1st leg.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

Alianza Lima may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Alianza Lima is seen as the favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alianza Lima
Peruvian Liga 1
09.08.25	Ayacucho - Alianza Lima	0:1 ✺
05.08.25	Alianza Lima - Sporting Cristal	0:0 ✺
31.07.25	Juan Pablo II College - Alianza Lima	1:2 ✺
27.07.25	Alianza Lima - Alianza Atlético	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
23.07.25	Grêmio - Alianza Lima	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 WTWTT
- Universidad Católica del Ecuador
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
08.08.25	Orense - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:1 ✺
03.08.25	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - SD Aucas	6:2 ✺
27.07.25	Deportivo Macará - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:4 ✺
19.07.25	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Vinotinto	3:0 ✺
12.07.25	Manta - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 TWWWL

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