Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 17 July 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos (Santiago de Chile)

Referee: Rey Hilfer L. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Spain	LaLiga+
Turkey	Exxen, S Sport, S Sport+
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Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz


	Universidad de Chile		Guaraní Asuncion

	1	X	2
	1.33	5	8.5	Watch
	1.57	4	5.5
	1.32	4.95	8.8	Watch
	1.33	5.33	9.4
	1.27	5.31	10.34	Watch
	1.57	3.9	5	Watch
	1.36	5.07	8.29	Watch
	1.93	3.45	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↓ (1.91)	4.63 ↑ (3.54)	7.44 ↑ (3.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Universidad de Chile
66.1%

Draw
20.9%

Guaraní Asuncion
13%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.2%

26.5%

24.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.7%

27.3%

23.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universidad de Chile has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Universidad de Chile's performance.

Guaraní Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Guaraní Asuncion might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Universidad de Chile than the current prediction. (-15.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Universidad de Chile that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guaraní Asuncion than the current prediction. (+10.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Guaraní Asuncion could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.9%	10.5%	10.5%

Universidad de Chile - Guaraní Asuncion Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Universidad de Chile will win (votes: 14 - 77.8%). Guaraní will win (votes: 2 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Universidad de Chile: 58.6% – 97%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Universidad de Chile (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Guaraní (3.12) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +0.75 - Guaraní (2.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Universidad de Chile (1.49) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Universidad de Chile (votes: 5 - 45.5%). Guaraní (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Castellon G. (G) 17. Hormazabal F. 2. Calderon F. 22. Zaldivia M. 7. Guerrero Pena M. G. 8. Poblete Zuniga I. E. 19. Altamirano J. 20. Aranguiz C. (C) 16. Sepulveda M. 27. Contreras R. 10. Assadi L.	12. Rodriguez M. (G) 14. Riveros P. 5. Lopez M. 15. Servin T. 2. Benitez Cabrera A. J. 7. Manzur A. 36. Martinez L. 20. Maidana A. 10. Mendieta W. 9. Ramirez I. 40. Fernandez F. (C)
Substitutes
24. Diaz A. 21. Diaz M. 18. Di Yorio L. 6. Fernandez N. 11. Guerra N. 30. Montes G. 34. Moya F. 13. Retamal D. 15. Salomoni F. 3. Tapia I. 1. Toselli C. (G) 23. Vasquez Gonzalez I. A.	29. Alfonso O. 3. Barbotte A. 16. Cespedes V. 26. Fernandez D. 25. Gomez G. 22. Gomez L. 33. Maciel A. 18. Mino Amarilla C. E. 30. Perez A. (G) 11. Rodriguez D. 27. Roman Torales F. J. 17. Torales R.
Coaches
Alvarez G.	Bernay V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', Lopez M. 🟨,
22', 1 - 0, Aranguiz C. (Pen),
29', Benitez Cabrera A. J. 🟨,
39', Sepulveda M. 🟨,
45+1', Lopez M. 🟨,
2nd Half (4 - 0)
46', Mendieta W. ↓, Maciel A. ↑,
46', Guerrero Pena M. G. ↓, Di Yorio L. ↑,
57', 2 - 0, Altamirano J. ⚽,
60', 3 - 0, Assadi L. ⚽, Sepulveda M. (A),
63', Benitez Cabrera A. J. ↓, Rodriguez D. ↑,
63', Fernandez F. ↓, Torales R. ↑,
65', 4 - 0, Hormazabal F. ⚽,
68', Contreras R. ↓, Guerra N. ↑,
68', Aranguiz C. ↓, Diaz M. ↑,
69', Sepulveda M. ↓, Salomoni F. ↑,
75', Ramirez I. ↓, Fernandez D. ↑,
77', Hormazabal F. ↓, Fernandez N. ↑,
78', Diaz M. 🟨,
87', 5 - 0, Guerra N. ⚽, Salomoni F. (A),

Preview

1st leg.

Universidad de Chile is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Guaraní's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Universidad de Chile is considered a favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Universidad de Chile won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).

Including home match between the teams, Universidad de Chile won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Universidad de Chile
Chilean Primera Division
12.07.25	Universidad de Chile - Colo-Colo	2:1 ✺
05.07.25	Unión Española - Universidad de Chile	0:2 ✺
21.06.25	Universidad de Chile - Deportes Iquique	3:1 ✺
15.06.25	Coquimbo Unido - Universidad de Chile	1:0 ✺
Chilean Cup
11.06.25	Universidad de Chile - Curicó Unido	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WWWLT
- Guaraní Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
12.07.25	Nacional Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion	1:0 ✺
06.07.25	Guaraní Asuncion - 2 de Mayo	3:1 ✺
01.06.25	Sportivo Trinidense - Guaraní Asuncion	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
28.05.25	Guaraní Asuncion - Boston River	0:5 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
24.05.25	Guaraní Asuncion - Sportivo Luqueño	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
06.02.14	Guaraní Asuncion - Universidad de Chile	2:3
30.01.14	Universidad de Chile - Guaraní Asuncion	1:0

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