Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 5

Date: 14 May 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Monumental (Lima)

Referee: Matonte Cabrera A. M. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Universitario de Deportes		Barcelona Guayaquil

	1	X	2
	2	3.3	3.9	Watch
	2.15	3	3.6
	2.08	3.15	3.7	Watch
	2.08	3.22	4.05
	2.07	3.2	3.95	Watch
	2.15	2.9	3.6
	2.07	3.26	3.97	Watch
	2.08	3.15	3.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↓ (2.34)	3.15 ↑ (3.04)	3.81 ↑ (3.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Universitario de Deportes
45.3%

Draw
30%

Barcelona Guayaquil
24.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.5%

31.1%

28.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.1%

30.6%

28%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universitario de Deportes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Barcelona Guayaquil has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Universitario de Deportes than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barcelona Guayaquil than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Universitario de Deportes - Barcelona Guayaquil Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Uni de Deportes (1.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Uni de Deportes (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Britos S. (G) 24. Polo A. 29. Corzo A. 3. Riveros W. 5. Di Benedetto M. 33. Inga C. 17. Concha J. 18. Urena R. 27. Carabali J. 20. Valera A. 19. Flores E.	1. Contreras J. (G) 18. Carabali B. 3. Arreaga X. 4. Vallecilla G. 6. Chala A. 22. Souza de Almeida L. 5. Jesus Trindade 26. Castillo Segura B. D. 30. Oyola B. 13. Corozo J. 9. Rivero O.
Substitutes
26. Ancajima H. 12. Calderon A. (G) 8. Costa G. 15. Diego Churin 55. Dulanto G. 36. Flores S. 23. Murrugarra J. 16. Perez M. 14. Reyna P. 11. Rivera J. 25. Vargas M. (G) 7. Velez J.	23. Arroyo D. 10. Caicedo F. 37. Campi G. 29. Chala Rosales W. J. 8. Cortez Casierra G. J. 16. De Arruabarrena I. (G) 7. Gomez J. 2. Mario Pineida 28. Quinonez Ruiz J. R. 25. Solano C. 21. Valiente J. 27. Vargas W.
Coaches
Fossati J.	Castillo S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
36', Corzo A. 🟨,
38', Rivero O. 🟨,
38', Valera A. 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 0, Valera A. ⚽, Concha J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Carabali J. 🟨,
54', Urena R. ↓, Murrugarra J. ↑,
61', Castillo Segura B. D. ↓, Caicedo F. ↑,
69', Flores E. ↓, Rivera J. ↑,
69', Inga C. ↓, Perez M. ↑,
77', Souza de Almeida L. ↓, Valiente J. ↑,
77', Oyola B. ↓, Arroyo D. ↑,
77', Concha J. ↓, Velez J. ↑,
90', Jesus Trindade ↓, Quinonez Ruiz J. R. ↑,

Preview

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Uni de Deportes is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Uni de Deportes: Calcaterra H. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Barcelona: Mario Pineida (Injury) Pinargote Lara K. D. (Muscle Injury) Rangel A. (Knee Injury) Rojas J. (Broken Leg)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Uni de Deportes won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:3. (average 0.3:1).

Including home match between the teams, Uni de Deportes won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Universitario de Deportes
Peruvian Liga 1
11.05.25	Universitario de Deportes - Alianza Atlético	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
08.05.25	Universitario de Deportes - Independiente del Valle	1:1 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
03.05.25	Cusco - Universitario de Deportes	2:0 ✺
27.04.25	Universitario de Deportes - Cajamarca	6:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
22.04.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - Universitario de Deportes	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 LTLWW
- Barcelona Guayaquil
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
11.05.25	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Barcelona Guayaquil	2:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
08.05.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - River Plate	2:3 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
04.05.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - Vinotinto	2:1 ✺
26.04.25	Deportivo Macará - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
22.04.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - Universitario de Deportes	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
22.04.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - Universitario de Deportes	0:1
02.03.22	Universitario de Deportes - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:1
23.02.22	Barcelona Guayaquil - Universitario de Deportes	2:0

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