Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 8 May 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Monumental (Lima)

Referee: Zanovelli P. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Universitario de Deportes		Independiente del Valle

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.25	3.7	Watch
	2.2	3	3.5
	2.08	3.15	3.7	Watch
	2.12	3.19	3.95
	2.11	3.21	3.8	Watch
	2.2	2.9	3.5
	2.06	3.27	3.82	Watch
	2.08	3.15	3.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↓ (2.17)	3.14 ↑ (3.12)	3.71 ↑ (3.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Universitario de Deportes
44.6%

Draw
30%

Independiente del Valle
25.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.5%

30.2%

26.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.9%

31.9%

24.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universitario de Deportes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Independiente del Valle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universitario de Deportes than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente del Valle than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Universitario de Deportes - Independiente del Valle Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Britos S. (G) 24. Polo A. 33. Inga C. 3. Riveros W. 5. Di Benedetto M. 27. Carabali J. 29. Corzo A. (C) 17. Concha J. 18. Urena R. 20. Valera A. 19. Flores E.	22. Villar G. (G) 23. Santamaria T. 2. Zarate L. 14. Carabajal M. 19. Loor L. 6. Alcivar J. 30. Ibarra R. 26. Cazares 7. Mercado P. 17. Rodriguez A. 77. Spinelli C.
Substitutes
26. Ancajima H. 12. Calderon A. (G) 8. Costa G. 34. Cruz E. 15. Diego Churin 55. Dulanto G. 23. Murrugarra J. 16. Perez M. 14. Reyna P. 11. Rivera J. 25. Vargas M. (G) 7. Velez J.	15. Cortez G. 13. Fernandez M. 11. Hoyos M. 8. Ibarra R. 9. Medina J. 32. Mendez J. 31. Pata E. 4. Quinonez O. 1. Ramirez M. (G) 5. Schunke R. 10. Sornoza J. 18. Zabala C.
Coaches
Fossati J.	Rabanal J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
28', 0 - 1, Spinelli C. ⚽,
34', 1 - 1, Carabali J. ⚽,
43', Mercado P. 🟨,
45+1', Costa G. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Ibarra R. ↓, Medina J. ↑,
46', Rodriguez A. ↓, Mendez J. ↑,
49', Concha J. 🟨,
64', Concha J. ↓, Velez J. ↑,
64', Valera A. ↓, Diego Churin ↑,
71', Carabali J. 🟨,
72', Inga C. ↓, Murrugarra J. ↑,
72', Flores E. ↓, Rivera J. ↑,
74', Spinelli C. ↓, Hoyos M. ↑,
74', Cazares ↓, Sornoza J. ↑,
79', Urena R. ↓, Costa G. ↑,
88', Mercado P. ↓, Zabala C. ↑,

Preview

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Uni de Deportes is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Uni de Deportes: Calcaterra H. (Muscle Injury) Perez M. (Injury)

There will not play in Ind del Valle: Paez K. (Inactive)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Uni de Deportes won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:7. (average 1:2.3).

Including home match between the teams, Uni de Deportes won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Universitario de Deportes
Peruvian Liga 1
03.05.25	Cusco - Universitario de Deportes	2:0 ✺
27.04.25	Universitario de Deportes - Cajamarca	6:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
22.04.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - Universitario de Deportes	0:1 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
18.04.25	Escuela Municipal Binacional - Universitario de Deportes	1:3 ✺
13.04.25	Universitario de Deportes - FBC Melgar	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 LWWWW
- Independiente del Valle
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
04.05.25	Independiente del Valle - Emelec	1:2 ✺
27.04.25	Orense - Independiente del Valle	1:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
23.04.25	Independiente del Valle - River Plate	2:2 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
19.04.25	Independiente del Valle - Manta	2:0 ✺
14.04.25	El Nacional - Independiente del Valle	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
08.04.25	Independiente del Valle - Universitario de Deportes	1:0
18.05.21	Universitario de Deportes - Independiente del Valle	3:2
05.05.21	Independiente del Valle - Universitario de Deportes	4:0

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