Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 8 May 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha (Guayaquil)

Referee: Roldan W. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Argentina	Disney+, Mi Telefe App, Mi Telefe, Telefe
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Disney+, Paramount+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN 5
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Georgia	Silk Universal
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 1, ESPN 2
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Polsat Sport 1
Portugal	Sport TV1
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
South-america	ESPN 2 South, ESPN 5 South
Turkey	Exxen, S Sport 2, S Sport+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
World	Pluto TV


	Barcelona Guayaquil		River Plate

	1	X	2
	4.1	3.4	1.95	Watch
	3.8	3.25	1.98
	4	3.3	1.95	Watch
	4.25	3.41	2.02
	4.07	3.37	1.97	Watch
	3.75	3.2	1.95	Watch
	4.09	3.39	1.95	Watch
	4	3.3	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.01 ↑ (3.88)	3.33 ↓ (3.44)	1.97 ↑ (1.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barcelona Guayaquil
23.6%

Draw
28.4%

River Plate
48.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.3%

27.5%

48.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.5%

27.7%

47.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barcelona Guayaquil has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

River Plate has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barcelona Guayaquil than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for River Plate than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	30%	70%

Barcelona Guayaquil - River Plate Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. River Plate will win (votes: 7 - 70%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for River Plate: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. River Plate (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Contreras J. (G) 18. Carabali B. 3. Arreaga X. (C) 4. Vallecilla G. 6. Chala A. 5. Jesus Trindade 26. Castillo Segura B. D. 22. Souza de Almeida L. 13. Corozo J. 21. Valiente J. 9. Rivero O.	1. Armani F. (C) 4. Montiel G. 28. Martinez Quarta L. 17. Diaz P. 21. Acuna M. 22. Castano K. 24. Perez E. 26. Fernandez N. 30. Mastantuono F. 15. Driussi S. 11. Colidio F.
Substitutes
23. Arroyo D. 10. Caicedo F. 41. Calle P. 37. Campi G. 29. Chala Rosales W. J. 8. Cortez Casierra G. J. 16. De Arruabarrena I. (G) 7. Gomez J. 30. Oyola B. 28. Quinonez Ruiz J. R. 25. Solano C. 27. Vargas W.	29. Aliendro R. 16. Bustos F. 20. Casco M. 34. Giuliano Galoppo 14. Gonzalez Pirez L. 10. Lanzini M. 25. Ledesma C. (G) 8. Meza M. 9. Miguel Borja 6. Pezzella G. 7. Rojas M. 38. Subiabre I.
Coaches
Castillo S.	Gallardo M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
7', 0 - 1, Driussi S. ⚽, Martinez Quarta L. (A),
15', 1 - 1, Rivero O. ⚽, Souza de Almeida L. (A),
26', 1 - 2, Colidio F. ⚽, Fernandez N. (A),
28', Chala A. 🟨,
37', Contreras J. ↓, De Arruabarrena I. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Driussi S. ↓, Miguel Borja ↑,
48', 1 - 3, Mastantuono F. ⚽, Miguel Borja (A),
49', 2 - 3, Martinez Quarta L. (Own goal),
66', Valiente J. ↓, Cortez Casierra G. J. ↑,
68', Fernandez N. ↓, Giuliano Galoppo ↑,
68', Colidio F. ↓, Meza M. ↑,
72', Perez E. ↓, Pezzella G. ↑,
75', Jesus Trindade 🟨,
79', Jesus Trindade ↓, Gomez J. ↑,
79', Castillo Segura B. D. ↓, Arroyo D. ↑,
79', Corozo J. ↓, Oyola B. ↑,
82', Giuliano Galoppo 🟨,
85', Mastantuono F. ↓, Rojas M. ↑,
85', Montiel G. 🟨,

Preview

Barcelona has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

River Plate is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, River Plate is the team to beat.

There will not play in Barcelona: Caicedo F. (Muscle Injury) Oyola B. (Inactive) Pinargote Lara K. D. (Muscle Injury) Rojas J. (Broken Leg)

There will not play in River Plate: Beltran S. (Injury) Diaz P. (Muscle Injury) Martinez P. (Hamstring Injury) Montiel G. (Inactive) Rojas M. (Inactive) Ruberto A. (Knee Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Barcelona won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barcelona Guayaquil
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
04.05.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - Vinotinto	2:1 ✺
26.04.25	Deportivo Macará - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
22.04.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - Universitario de Deportes	0:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
18.04.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - El Nacional	1:0 ✺
14.04.25	Orense - Barcelona Guayaquil	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WWLWL
- River Plate
Argentinian Liga Profesional
04.05.25	River Plate - Vélez Sársfield	4:1 ✺
27.04.25	River Plate - Boca Juniors	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
23.04.25	Independiente del Valle - River Plate	2:2 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
18.04.25	Gimnasia La Plata - River Plate	0:3 ✺
13.04.25	River Plate - Talleres de Córdoba	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
08.04.25	River Plate - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:0

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