Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 11

Date: 4 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha (Guayaquil)

Referee: Cajas A. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, Ecuavisa, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Barcelona Guayaquil		Vinotinto

	1	X	2
	1.53	3.7	5.5	Watch
	1.53	3.7	5.25
	1.54	3.9	5.6	Watch
	1.54	3.9	6.71
	1.56	3.79	6.25	Watch
	1.55	3.75	5.8
	1.58	3.82	5.68	Watch
	1.54	3.9	5.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (1.65)	3.81 ↑ (3.75)	5.8 ↑ (4.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barcelona Guayaquil
59.8%

Draw
24.3%

Vinotinto
15.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.4%

24.8%

18.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.9%

25.9%

18%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barcelona Guayaquil has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Vinotinto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barcelona Guayaquil than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vinotinto than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	16.7%	16.7%

Barcelona Guayaquil - Vinotinto Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Barcelona will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Vinotinto will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Barcelona (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Vinotinto (2.46) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Barcelona (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Vinotinto (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Contreras J. (G) 18. Carabali B. 3. Arreaga X. 4. Vallecilla G. 2. Mario Pineida (C) 22. Souza de Almeida L. 5. Jesus Trindade 26. Castillo Segura B. D. 8. Cortez Casierra G. J. 13. Corozo J. 29. Rivero O.	25. Mitre L. (G) 4. Aguirre A. (C) 23. Gomez L. 36. Nardelli G. 26. Hernandez E. 18. Ushina K. 10. Luna D. 15. Larotonda C. 8. Caicedo J. 11. Mina A. 17. Monti R.
Substitutes
23. Arroyo D. 41. Calle P. 37. Campi G. 6. Chala A. 44. Chala Rosales W. J. 16. De Arruabarrena I. (G) 7. Gomez J. 15. Guerra F. 28. Quinonez Ruiz J. R. 25. Solano C. 21. Valiente J. 27. Vargas W.	13. Carrasco Bonilla M. A. 5. Coba K. 2. Iriarte I. 1. Lopez J. (G) 40. Mera F. 3. Micolta C. 9. Molina N. 6. Ona C. 22. Rodriguez E.
Coaches
Castillo S.	Grabowski J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
25', Gomez L. 🟨,
43', Hernandez E. 🟨,
45', Arreaga X. 🟨,
45+3', 1 - 0, Cortez Casierra G. J. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Mario Pineida ↓, Chala A. ↑,
48', Monti R. 🟨,
49', 🟨,
57', 1 - 1, Luna D. ⚽,
60', 2 - 1, Cortez Casierra G. J. ⚽, Chala A. (A),
71', Castillo Segura B. D. ↓, Gomez J. ↑,
71', Souza de Almeida L. ↓, Arroyo D. ↑,
71', Cortez Casierra G. J. ↓, Valiente J. ↑,
73', Caicedo J. ↓, Mera F. ↑,
83', Gomez L. ↓, Rodriguez E. ↑,
89', Aguirre A. ↓, Molina N. ↑,
89', Arreaga X. ↓, Campi G. ↑,
89', Larotonda C. ↓, Coba K. ↑,
90+6', Rivero O. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )).

In recent matches, Barcelona has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Vinotinto is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Barcelona is considered a favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barcelona Guayaquil
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
26.04.25	Deportivo Macará - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
22.04.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - Universitario de Deportes	0:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
18.04.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - El Nacional	1:0 ✺
14.04.25	Orense - Barcelona Guayaquil	3:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
08.04.25	River Plate - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WLWLT
- Vinotinto Ecuador
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
26.04.25	Vinotinto - Deportivo Cuenca	0:1 ✺
20.04.25	Técnico Universitario - Vinotinto	1:3 ✺
09.04.25	Vinotinto - Delfín	5:0 ✺
05.04.25	Orense - Vinotinto	0:0 ✺
29.03.25	Vinotinto - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.2 LWWTW

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