Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 6

Date: 26 May 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Monumental (Lima)

Referee: Zanovelli P. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bolivia	ESPN 6, ESPN
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+, ESPN 6
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 6
Ecuador	ESPN 2, ESPN 6
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN 6
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 6, ESPN
Ukraine	Maincast Sport
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN 6, Inter


	Universitario de Deportes		Deportes Tolima

	1	X	2
	2.63	3	2.9	Watch
	1.9	3.2	4.2
	2.58	2.88	2.98	Watch
	2.69	2.97	3.1
	2.34	3.04	3.37	Watch
	2.5	2.75	2.9
	2.67	2.96	3.04	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↑ (1.91)	2.97 ↓ (3.18)	3.21 ↓ (4.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Universitario de Deportes
38.4%

Draw
32%

Deportes Tolima
29.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.8%

29.4%

21.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.4%

30.4%

21.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universitario de Deportes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Universitario de Deportes's form might have worsened.

Deportes Tolima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Deportes Tolima's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universitario de Deportes than the current prediction. (+12%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Universitario de Deportes, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes Tolima than the current prediction. (-8.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Deportes Tolima, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.3%	27.3%	45.5%

Universitario de Deportes - Deportes Tolima Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Uni de Deportes will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Deportes Tolima will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Deportes Tolima: 16.1% – 74.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Romero D. (G) 2. Fara C. 4. Santamaria A. 5. Di Benedetto M. 24. Polo A. (C) 16. Perez Guedes M. 8. Fertoli H. 27. Carabali J. 17. Concha J. 30. Alzugaray L. 20. Valera A.	1. Neto Volpi (G) 71. Osorio Y. 2. Angulo A. (C) 17. Arrieta C. 28. Lopez E. 6. Trujillo C. 32. Guzman S. 30. Barbosa Gomez S. P. 7. Gonzalez J. 80. Rovira B. 24. Parra Osorio A.
Substitutes
26. Ancajima H. 10. Calcaterra H. 6. Castillo J. 29. Corzo A. 19. Flores E. 90. Gassama S. 33. Inga C. 99. Miguel Silveira 23. Murrugarra J. 77. Reyna B. 14. Reyna P. 25. Vargas M. (G)	3. Angulo J. 18. Florez K. 20. Hernandez J. 22. Marquinez L. (G) 31. Moreno Y. 33. Mosquera J. 15. Nieto J. 4. Pedrozo D. 10. Torres Patino J. P. 8. Valencia E. 11. Valencia J.
Coaches
Cuper H.	Gonzalez L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Fertoli H. ↓, Murrugarra J. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Gonzalez J. ↓, Torres Patino J. P. ↑,
64', Alzugaray L. ↓, Flores E. ↑,
77', Perez Guedes M. ↓, Gassama S. ↑,
77', Carabali J. ↓, Inga C. ↑,
77', Parra Osorio A. ↓, Florez K. ↑,
77', Barbosa Gomez S. P. ↓, Angulo J. ↑,
84', Arrieta C. 🟨,
87', Arrieta C. ↓, Mosquera J. ↑,
90+6', Torres Patino J. P. 🟨,

Preview

Uni de Deportes has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Deportes Tolima's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Uni de Deportes may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Uni de Deportes has had a series of away games.

In this match, Uni de Deportes is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Uni de Deportes: Calcaterra H. (Injury) Rivera J. (Inactive)

There will not play in Deportes Tolima: Mera J. (Inactive) Ricardo E. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Uni de Deportes: Polo A. (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Uni de Deportes won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Outrights of Copa Libertadores for now

Deportes Tolima: 0.62%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Universitario de Deportes
Peruvian Liga 1
23.05.26	Moquegua - Universitario de Deportes	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
20.05.26	Nacional Montevideo - Universitario de Deportes	0:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
15.05.26	Universitario de Deportes - Atlético Grau	0:1 ✺
11.05.26	Sport Boys - Universitario de Deportes	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
07.05.26	Coquimbo Unido - Universitario de Deportes	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 TTLTL
- Deportes Tolima
Colombian Primera A
23.05.26	Atlético Nacional - Deportes Tolima	3:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
19.05.26	Coquimbo Unido - Deportes Tolima	3:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
16.05.26	Deportes Tolima - Atlético Nacional	0:1 ✺
13.05.26	Deportivo Pasto - Deportes Tolima	0:2 ✺
09.05.26	Deportes Tolima - Deportivo Pasto	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
07.04.26	Deportes Tolima - Universitario de Deportes	0:0

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